Michael Coslo posted on Wed, 5 Dec 2007 10:28:14 EST

Interesting numbers, Len

We have a continuation of the dropoff of (almost certainly) inactive
Hams. Not too surprising there, if a person subscribes to the idea that
a lot of folks who once used 2 meters as a sort of "pre cell phone cell
phone" had migrated over to cell phones to get their communication needs
taken care of.

I think that that will continue until around 2009-10.

Mike, I wasn't presupposing any reasons for individuals to let their
licenses expire. Expirations are expirations. There's no proof or
anything else that all or some majority expirations come from
Technician class (the ones that supposedly used 2m as a cell
phone substitute).

I used www.hamdata.com primarily because that website does sort
out new licensees and expirations from the huge singular daily amateur
radio license database available from the FCC. QRZ and some other
amateur-oriented websites do different sorting. The ARRL website
listing only has sorting by 'active' license status, class, and state
or
province, does not indicate 'new' nor expiration nor class changes nor
'other administrative changes.'

ALL of these amateur-oriented statistical data services come from
the SAME public database information. That database contains
enough sub-data fields to derive all kinds of sorting. Some of that
sorting would require temporary storage of past database information
to show changes. The ARRL sorting is perhaps the simplest kind
since it requires no storage of previous database information, taking
only the 'active' individuals licensees out and sorting them by
license
class and geographical locations.

The number that I think is most important is the new license numbers.
People are still getting licenses, and at a healthy rate.

Well, at a 0.1% growth rate over 9 months, 'healthy' would be a
rather subjective descriptor, wouldn't it? :-)

At least they are INCREASING what was a LOSS rate, not a growth.
In the year prior to 3 March 2007 the number of expirations was
29,096 versus newcomer total of 22,605. That's a negative delta of
6,487. The positive delta over 9 months since 3 March 2007 was
only 1,162 (20,901 newcomers v. 19,739 expirations).

Not having the exact statistical breakdown of any licensee numbers
insofar as 9 months prior to 3 March 2007, I simply used the One
Year prior available numbers and did simple arithmetic (multiply by
3/4) to find a comparative change of newcomer v. expirations. That
turned out to be 21,822 expirations v. 16,957 newcomers, still a
negative delta and a 4,865 average drop to total licensees in the
same 9 months. In probability and speculation, without the
elimination of the code test as ordered on 19 December 2006 (R&O
FCC 06-178), the total licensee numbers would still be decreasing.

What would be more indicative of 'health' might be a more detailed
sorting of public database information as to newcomers achieving
what class license as their first. As a part of that, it would be
nice
to see how many and from which class does a license class change
within some time period. That seems to me to be more indicative
of newcomers interest and the probable future of amateur radio in
the USA once normal human attrition has taken care of the rest of
us. If that probable future turns out to be different than what the
devotees of the 60s and 70s newcomers did, then it is just
different.
Such difference in perference would not be a 'moral flaw' of
newcomers despite what some boomer-generation-newcomer
licensees express now.

The future of USA amateur radio belongs to the newcomers of now.
I think that the relatively minor number of existing licensees who
ARE doing things for newcomers, such as Steve Bonine described
in another thread here, are an EXCELLENT example of what should
be done...positive steps, proactive steps to help, not hinder
newcomers.

73, Len AF6AY