On Dec 5, 7:33 pm, Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote in news:bee3b054-8d1d-4ea1-9361-d31412aa1b41
@s36g2000prg.googlegroups.com:

IMHO, it is significant that the license numbers were slowly
decreasing from 2003 to 2007, and are now slowly increasing. The
growth may be slight but at least it is not a loss.

The decrease in license numbers at that time very well might have been due
to the uncertainty of the demise of element 1. I know several new hams
that waited for it to go away.

Interesting theory! I know at least one ham who waited for Element 1
to go away, too.

If there's the possibility that the "price" of something will drop in
the near future, "sales" of that item often drop as people decide to
wait and see.

The number of US hams rose from early 2000 to mid-2003, then began to
decline almost exactly when the ITU treaty changed.

But correlation is not causation. There are any number of possible
reasons for the changes, ranging from sunspot decline to economic
factors to inexpensive cell phones and broadband internet.

The big question is whether the growth will continue long-term.

73 de Jim, N2EY