Alan WA4SCA wrote:

So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway.


Perhaps it is just ONE factor among many. Other factors may include:


* the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world
outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they
know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham
radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it.

* the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license
term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is
dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC.

* We have no way of knowing whether a licensed ham is active, so there
again, it will take years for inactive hams to be dropped from the
license database, assuming that they take no action to renew their
licenses.

In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not
rise to the level of statistical significance. Given the magnitude of
the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell
whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is
there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of
the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent),
given the various unknown factors.

--
Klystron