RadioBanter - View Single Post - 1 Year Later

Klystron · February 26th 08, 06:37 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated

wrote:
[...]
Whatever your view of the *test*, Morse Code is still in wide use in
amateur radio.
Therefore, by definition, skill in its use is neither useless nor
obsolete for hams.

Of course, that sort of tautology would still hold if there were an
FCC regulation that all ham radio conversation must take place in Latin
and all new hams must pass a test in Latin.

[...]
No, 6 years is the right number if the grace period is being
considered. Here's why:

If the license term is 10 years and the grace period is 2 years and
the likelihood of
a ham dying is the same for any given year, then the median value is
halfway through
that combined 12 year period. Which is 6 years.

IOW, all else being equal, half of the hams who die in the 12 year
license-term-plus-grace-period
interval will do so in the first 6 years, and half will do so in the
second 6 years.

If the grace period is not considered, the median value happens at 5
years.

I disagree. All hams will get the full 2 year grace period AFTER they
die (assuming that the FCC is not told of their deaths). It is a
constant, not a variable. 'Term of license remaining at time of death'
is the only variable. It has an expected value of 5 years. The full
grace period is added to that by default.
Put another way, my assumption is that all hams will renew their
licenses for as long as they live. Even if they die the day before the
end of their final term, they will still get the full 2 year grace. For
your model to hold, they would have to allow their final term of license
to expire and then live on into the grace period.

--
Klystron