Klystron wrote:
Alan WA4SCA wrote:

So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway.


Perhaps it is just ONE factor among many. Other factors may include:


* the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world
outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they
know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham
radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it.

It would be interesting for sure. Ham Radio is one of those niche
activities that isn't geared toward the average person. And that really
isn't all that bad a thing. Some people pick hobbies because a lot of
other people are doing the same thing, Others pick ones like amateur
astronomy or Ham radio because its what they enjoy.

At any rate, its all good, I think.


* the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license
term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is
dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC.

Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I
know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed
my mind. 8^)


In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not
rise to the level of statistical significance.

In an overall sense, it is a little hard to come to a definitive idea of
how many are active, and most analysis only gives us rough trends.

I am pleased that the FCC is issuing a goodly number of new licenses,
and that at least the big dropoff is at least negated for the present. I
personally am happy with only a small increase in numbers.


Given the magnitude of
the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell
whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is
there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of
the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent),
given the various unknown factors.


I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult,
certainly it can't be gleaned from totals.

- 73 de Mike N3LI -