On Aug 2, 4:02�pm, "JB" wrote:

Expired in the grace period could be significant.
�Are they counted as active or expired?

Grace period licenses are not included in the posted numbers.

FCC uses the term "expired" WRT amateur licenses to mean licenses that
have reached the end of their 10 year term without being renewed. A
license that is in the grace period is defined as...an expired license
that is in the grace period. Once the grace period ends, it's not a
license anymore and is removed from the database.

IMHO, with online renewal and both ARRL and W5YI sending reminders of
expiration, I suspect that most licenses that are in the grace period
more than a month or two will not be renewed.

Interesting to note that we have actually seen
growth during a sunspot
minima, and loss after 9/11 and the focus
on Homeland Security.

What actually happened, in broad terms, is this:

After the 2000 restructuring, the number of US ham licenses grew until
July, 2003. The total number of current, unexpired licenses held by
individuals reached about 683,000. (Sorry, I don't have exact numbers
for that date).

Then the numbers started to decline, until they were below the 2000
level. That decline continued until Feb 2007. Since then they have
begun to increase again, and if the trend continues we will soon exceed
the 2000 level.

73 de Jim, N2EY