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Jeff Davis[_4_] · **July 22 2009 ARS License Numbers**

On 2009-08-03, wrote:

Then the numbers started to decline, until they were below the 2000
level. That decline continued until Feb 2007. Since then they have
begun to increase again, and if the trend continues we will soon exceed
the 2000 level.

Numbers are numbers I suppose but the obvious weak and unavoidable link in
this sort of data is that it cannot include anyone who has died with an
active license until that license expires. And given that the average age
for radio amateurs has been increasing steadily, it's a good bet that there
are tens of thousands of deceased hams being included in the license totals.

The other immeasurable data is how many licensees are no longer active at
all yet religiously renew their license since it is free and can be done
with almost no effort? That number could be enormous and may hint at why
despite having nearly 700,000 names in the hopper, there are only some
150,000 members of the ARRL (not withstanding the naysayers).

If we make the same sort of assumptions as those in the life insurance
business, and we suppose that the median age for licensees is now over 60,
then between now and 2020 the number of licensees in the database will
shrink to below 300,000 due to attrition.

That is assuming we see the same paltry gains in new licensees as is seen at
the moment. So while there is some reason to be pleased that the numbers
appear to be going up, there remains an inevitable precipice in front of us.

73,
--
jeff