On Feb 24, 7:27�pm, Jeffrey Angus wrote:
On 2/24/2010 7:06 AM, wrote:

Another purpose is to see how true various predictions have
turned out to be. It turns out that predictions of rapid
growth and rapid decline were both untrue.

Which pretty means that all the frantic arm waving and cries
of the utter destruction of Amateur Radio due to the no code
changes in the licensing were unwarranted.

Maybe. It's only been three years.

Note that after the changes of 2000, we had three years of growth, and
then four years of decline. Hopefully that pattern won't repeat, and
the growth will continue.

But also note that the predictions of lots of growth have been
unwarranted as well.

The earlier growth of Amateur Radio was due to the "ow wow"
factor when it was new, and then the "we can't let THEM win"
factor during the Cold War.

I respectfully disagree with that, in many ways.

Sure, the oh-wow factor was there in the early days (before and just
after WW1). But note that during the 1920s, when Radio (meaning
broadcasting) was the cat's pajamas, amateur radio grew very slowly.
There were fewer than 20,000 US amateurs in 1929.

OTOH, during the 1930s the number of US hams almost tripled, despite
the Great Depression and much tighter regulation.

The Cold War may have been a factor in the 1950s, but I suspect that
the oh-wow factor was still very big then. There was also the
increasing affluence of middle-class Americans plus inexpensive WW2
surplus and kits to boost amateur radio. Yet during the 1960s, US ham
radio hardly grew at all.

The biggest growth in recent times was during the 1970s and 1980s,
despite stagflation, incentive licensing, energy crises, and
competition from the cb boom. From the late 1960s to the mid 1980s the
number of US hams about doubled. The growth actually went down in the
1990s.

The current growth is due to "good publicity" concerning the
role Amateur Radio has in emergencies.

Certainly a factor, but not the only one. Another is the large number
of baby boomers approaching retirement age. Yet another is the
maturation of the internet - it's an appliance now, not the golly-whiz-
bang new thing of a few years ago.

Plus there are so many different things to do in ham radio today!

As long as we don't come across as a bunch of buffoons or
cranky old men, we should continue to grow.

Hopefully. Another thing that's needed is continued publicity.

But we're still not keeping up with the growth in the US population.
Yet.

73 de Jim N2EY