On Feb 24, 9:02�pm, wrote:
On Feb 24, 7:27 pm, Jeffrey Angus wrote:
On 2/24/2010 7:06 AM, wrote:

Another purpose is to see how true various predictions have
turned out to be. It turns out that predictions of rapid
growth and rapid decline were both untrue.

Which pretty means that all the frantic arm waving and cries
of the utter destruction of Amateur Radio due to the no code
changes in the licensing were unwarranted.

Maybe. It's only been three years.

The no-code-test Technician class license existed since 1991.

Note that after the changes of 2000, we had three years of growth, and
then four years of decline. Hopefully that pattern won't repeat, and
the growth will continue.

The growth of USA amateur radio licensing has been miniscule since
2006. Using www.hamdata.com statistics for the period of 18 May 2006
through 18 Nov 2009, there were a total of 95,465 NEW licensees and a
total of 95,702 EXPIRATIONS. That is from referece material for an
e-ham.net article published at the endof 2009.

But also note that the predictions of lots of growth have been
unwarranted as well.

I have yet to see a specific quote from anyone who "predicted lots of
growth." At best there were a few who optimistically wanted more
growth. I was not one of those nor in the habit of "predicting"
anything, only trying to show TRENDS.

The Cold War may have been a factor in the 1950s, but I suspect that
the oh-wow factor was still very big then. There was also the
increasing affluence of middle-class Americans plus inexpensive WW2
surplus and kits to boost amateur radio. Yet during the 1960s, US ham
radio hardly grew at all.

The "Cold War" existed from 1948 to 1991 and the dissolving of the
Soviet Union. The first wide release of WWII surplus electronics to
local electronics stores was 1947. There was also the factor of the
meteoric rise of Television beginning in 1947, drawing
consumer-electronics manufacturers into that market. Even Hallicrafters
and National Radio Co. were making TV receivers in that time. By about
1959 established radio makers and many start-ups were entering the
Class D CB market which would almost equal TV receiver production.

The current growth is due to "good publicity" concerning the
role Amateur Radio has in emergencies.

Certainly a factor, but not the only one. Another is the large number
of baby boomers approaching retirement age. Yet another is the
maturation of the internet - it's an appliance now, not the golly-whiz-
bang new thing of a few years ago.

The Internet went public in 1991, 19 years old, not "a few years ago".
Compuserve and other network message providers were in existance before
the Internet and Personal Computers were in existence on them by 1978
(text-only for the most part).

Back in 30 December 1990 Richard Hoffbeck, N0LOX, made a study of the
amateur radio license classes and ages as of the FCC database of
November 1988. That data was sent to Fritz Anderson, WT9T (no relation)
over what I think was Compuserve (or another network). Both N0LOX and
WT9T were in the FCC database as of 13 Dec 2009. Of the (then) 5
classes in the USA, the average age of Novices was 42.19, the oldest
average age was Advanced with 56.26. The total number of licensees was
480,191 in Nov 88. Note: A birthdate was required by the FCC in 1988.

Plus there are so many different things to do in ham radio today!

Except that the code test for all licensees except the no-code- test
Technician was KEPT until 23 Feb 07 and the Technician class currently
has the GREATEST population of all despite its start in 1991.

As long as we don't come across as a bunch of buffoons or
cranky old men, we should continue to grow.

Hopefully. Another thing that's needed is continued publicity.

Publicity isn't generated by sitting around in amateur radio venues
congratulating one another. There is MINISCULE publicity generated in
mass media to inform the PUBLIC. New licensees aren't all coming from
"ham families." Hobbyists in electronics are enjoying all sorts of
activities besides amateur radio. One out of three Americans have cell
phones, one out of five has some Internet access. Both of those can
reach around the world (or in the neighborhood) 24/7. They don't need
to out-guess the ionosphere to use a 160-year-old telegraphic
technique.

The ARRL has existed since before WW One yet it has not caused a blip
in any Mass Media TV or Radio markets with all of its "prepared
high-quality broadcast material." Look in cable TV program listings.
Most of us in the Public are asleep in the 1 AM to 6 AM "public
service" time slots.

But we're still not keeping up with the growth in the US population.
Yet.

USA amateur radio license numbers are STATIC, essentially un- changing
down in "statistical noise" or random variations.

Len, K6LHA