On 10/24/2011 11:35 PM, Patty Winter wrote:
In , Steve wrote:

Developments in technology have reduced the need for what we can offer.
Mother Nature still reminds us that our fine technology is at her
pleasure, but not often. Hurricane Katrina illustrated the frailty of
modern communications, but it also illustrated how things have changed
in the role of ham radio in disasters.

At a panel discussion about the future of amateur radio at Pacificon
(the ARRL Pacific Division convention) a couple of weeks ago, I was
struck by the fact that all four speakers--including officials well
informed about both national and international trends--said that
hams will soon play almost no role in disaster communications. I knew
that other services were getting stronger, but I didn't realize that
the prospects were going to change that dramatically for us that soon.
[snip]
But there was also discussion of satellite phones that can be set up
in minutes basically by pressing a button, and of on-the-fly data
networks.

The hardest part of keeping our hobby relevant is that we must admit
there is sometimes nothing we can do. Elected officials are much more
likely to spend money for commercial solutions recommended by their
subordinates, than for a volunteer force they cannot quantify or inventory.

Sometimes we get help from emergency responders: municipal budget
battles are harder-fought now, and civil servants are more receptive to
the idea of "free" help, but hams have to be realistic about what is
possible and what is not, and there are too many among us (I was once
one) who feel that we're an irreplaceable link in a communications chain
that no longer exists. It's up to us to adapt to the system that is in
use now, and to become a part of that system which its "owners" grow to
depend on. Once we earn that trust, we'll have allies in higher places,
but there's a lot of catching up to do before that happens.

From what I heard at the convention, the best hope for helping amateur
radio thrive is getting back to its roots of innovation--in particular,
by getting hams involved with the Maker movement (and vice versa). In
fact, I think the League has something up its sleeve about that. If it
works, it could help keep us in the good graces of those who dish out
frequencies and make rules about antennas.

I know little about the "Maker movement": according to Wikipedia, it's a
Do-It-Yourself paradigm that has a magazine at its center. I applaud the
concept, but I'm old enough to be cautious when counting chickens that
haven't yet hatched, and I hope that those in charge of keeping our
society intact after a disaster are hard-nosed about what is possible
and what is not.

As much as I might like to fantasize about being the ham who saves the
day by making a homebrew rig work with homemade batteries, I know that
the last thing any disaster preparedness professional wants is a single
point of failure, be it man or machine. It's nice to watch someone make
a cabinet on TV and think "I could do that", but it's quite another to
hold a router or to arrange a dovetail fence: it's important to have a
"can do" attitude, but we need to bring "we already did that" experience
to the table as well.

In the past, long-distance disaster communications meant you had to have
ham operators. Those days are gone: planning or preparing for a day when
hams have to do-it-all-ourselves is self-defeating, because it invites
both criticism of our capabilities and hard questions about whether
we're trying to be members of a team or "Lone Rangers" out to grab a lot
of glory and ride off into the sunset.

I'm sorry to be so blunt, but I think our hobby is still in the "Denial"
phase of dealing with this crisis. We need to accept that the
communications world has changed, and adapt ourselves to the current
technologies and the current methods before we'll be taken seriously again.

Bill, W1AC

--
Bill Horne
(Remove QRM from my address to write to me directly)