On Sat, 19 Jul 2014 17:11:27 -0000, wrote:

Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Fri, 18 Jul 2014 18:02:02 +0200, "Dogon" wrote:

Strange news on spacewheater yesterday.: (just a few days after i wrote my posting!)
"WHERE DID ALL THE SUNSPOTS GO? This week, solar activity has sharply declined.
There is only one numbered sunspot on the Earth-facing side of the sun, and it is so
small you might have trouble finding it."

Aren't you suspicious why the sunspot count dropped so suddenly? It's
because the sunspots were never there. Someone cleaned the lenses on
the sunspot counting helioscopes thus removing all the sunspots. In
the past, it was traditional to clean the lenses every 11 years, but I
guess they're not following that schedule any more. Most likely, the
helioscope keepers were on summer vacation, and their temporary
replacements didn't know any better. However, not to worry. The
sunspot count should return to normal as the dust accumulates.

Yep, up to 26 already.

Ok, the official lens cleaners are back from vacation. Let the
counting continue.

Looks like there's some disagreement on predictions. The SM (standard
method) predicts a drop, while the CM (combined method) predicts a
slightly rising number:
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/kalmansmcm
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/ssngraphics
Toss a coin.

Just for fun, I grabbed the data files for the recent monthly numbers
from:
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/INFO/issndheminfocsv.php
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/datafiles
and plotted them from 2000 to May 2014 without smoothing, filtering,
tweaking, or massaging. Well, I added a second order polynomial trend
line, which predicts an increase:
http://802.11junk.com/jeffl/sunspots/Sunspots-2000-2014.jpg
http://802.11junk.com/jeffl/sunspots/Sunspots-2000-2014.xls
Maybe toss another coin. The scatter plot shows huge variations from
month to month. I would expect much the same for daily variations. If
the sunspot number hits zero occasionally, I would not be surprised.
Trying to predict propagation from a single daily point is not going
to be easy.

Disclaimer: I know little about sunspots and this is all new to me.



--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558