On Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:13:18 EDT, Foxs Mercantile
wrote:
Elsewhere, an estimate from the ARRL was that 50% of the
licensed hams (Almost 360 thousand) are inactive.
50% That's an incredible number.
Also, it was noted that in response to a mass mailing of hams
in a locality, 50% of the mail came back as undeliverable.
I know as a whole, our average age is a bit high, but they
can't all be silent keys.
And I suspect equally, at the opposite end of that they can't
all be 19-20 year old newlyweds with no time for radio anymore.
So what happened to them? How did we lose 50% of our licensees?
Obviously a large number of people took the time, however short,
to learn (or memorize) enough to pass the test and get a license.
What caused them to lose interest?
The magic of radio is gone. When most hams got their start in radio,
RF was fairly close to magic. Talking to someone half way around the
world was a real challenge. At the time, long distance telephone
calls were expensive and noisy. There were no cell phones or
internet. Ham radio equipment was mostly WWII conversions, home brew,
or expensive commercial equipment.
Today, we have the internet, VoIP, cell phones, commodity hardware,
and computahs. These have made radio much less of a challenge. Kids
interested in ham radio have asked me "Why would I want to get a radio
to talk to someone that I can more easily chat with on a computah?"
There's no longer any magic in talking to someone half way around the
world, when the average person could do better just picking up the
phone or sending an email.
Was it an equipment problem? Surely there should have been some
local ham offer to help them get set up.
Or was it a social problem?
Once they got their license, were they told they weren't "Real
Hams(tm)" because insert favorite reason here.
Were they ignored at meetings when they showed up?
Being beginners, were they helped? Or were they made to feel
inadequate when they asked a question because "Everyone knows
that."
About 10 years ago, we experienced a surge in membership in the local
radio clubs which coincided with the removal of the Morse code
requirement for licensing. When asked, most were interested in using
the phone patch on the repeater as a cheap cell phone.
Beginners were a different problem. They would usually join at age 14
or so, and become very active, enthusiastic, and interested in radio.
I mentored several of these new hams. Eventually, they discovered
girls, sports, cars, or something else, and were gone as fast as they
had arrived. The limiting factor seemed to be how well ham radio
might compete against girls, sports, and cars. I don't have a
solution for that problem.
Also, hams are getting older and dropping like flies. The average US
national death rate is about 8 deaths/1000/year. With 700,000
licensed hams, I would expect to lose:
700,000 / 1000 * 8 = 5,600 deaths/year
Since the FCC only updates their database when someone fails to renew,
it would take all of the 10 year license term for anyone to notice.
Assuming that death occurred in the middle of the license term,
that's:
5,600 * 5 = 28,000
hams that are inactive because they are dead at any given time. Since
the age distribution of ham operators tends to favor older hams, I
suspect that 28,000 might a rather conservative figure and the real
number is much higher.
ARRL membership tends to float around 22% of licensed hams.
http://frrl.wordpress.com/2012/01/21/700000-amateur-radio-operators-in-the-us-perhaps-the-real-number-is-157000/
I think one can consider ARRL membership to be more representative of
the number of active hams.
I just checked the FCC database for 5 local hams that have died in the
last 5 years or so. All are still listed as being licensed. One
shows an expired license. I wonder if the ARRL has a special price
for members that are silent keys?
--
Jeff Liebermann
150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Santa Cruz CA 95060
http://802.11junk.com
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558