:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 18 0131 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 January 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Very low
conditions were observed on 11-14 January and again on 16-17
January. Low levels occurred on 15 January with a few weak C-class
flares observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on
10 Jan). A 14 degree long filament, centered near S30W03, erupted
between 14/1803-2048 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME)
was visible in SOHO LASCO imagery beginning at 14/2324 UTC.
Analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, determined a
potential glancing blow could impact Earth early on 19 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 11-14 January at
quiet to active levels due to effects from a negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions persisted
on 15-17 January. ACE satellite parameters indicated a maximum wind
speed reading of 662 km/s at 12/0711 UTC. By period's end, wind
speeds had declined to about 330 km/s. Total field (Bt) reached a
maximum reading of 10 nT late on the 10th and generally ranged
between 3-7 nT for a majority of the period. The Bz component varied
between +/- 7 nT from late on the 11th through early on the 13th.
Through the remainder of the period, Bz did not vary much beyond +/-
4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards)
orientation through midday on 16 January when a rotation to a more
positive (away) sector was observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 January - 13 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 18, 23-26, 29-31 January, 01-06 and
09-13 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the
remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
periods on 18-19 January due to possible glancing blow effects from
the 14 Jan CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 22-23,
28-29 January, 02-03 and 07-09 February due to recurrent CH HSS
effects. Predominately quiet levels are expected for the remainder
of the outlook period.