In article , Alun Palmer
writes:

(N2EY) wrote in
:

In article , Alun Palmer
writes:

Largely because it comes too late. If this had happened in 1992, as it
might well have if it had made the agenda and that particular
conference had not been postponed by three years, then I think the
effect would have been much bigger.

Maybe.

Or maybe S25.5 would have not been revised in 1992 if it was on the
agenda, conference wasn't postponed, etc. Remember that back in '92 the
maritime folks still had CW/Morse capability required on all ships over
a certain size.

I think the delay actually worked FOR the total elimination of code
testing.


Absolutely. It changed it from an odds on probability to a near certainty.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree about the probability back in 1992.

But note this: Medical waivers for the 13 and 20 wpm code tests began in 1990.
Anyone who could get a doctor's note needed only to pass 5 wpm. And there
were/are lots of accomodations available.

Then in 1991 the code test for all amateur privs above 30 MHz went away.

Was there a sustained increase in amateur radio growth because of those
changes? No - just compare the growth in the '80s vs. the '90s. There was an
initial surge when the changes happened, that's all.

It's been over three years since the restructuring and US license totals have
increased by about 11,000. I thought we'd be over 700,000 by 2001.

If/when FCC dumps Element 1, will we see lots of growth? I sincerely doubt it.


Don't forget though that the maritime CW phasing out period began way back
in 1987, although it wasn't completed until 2000 (and some would say,
isn't complete now, despite no testing, distress watch, etc.).

You left out a key word: "mandatory". Morse/CW is still used in some parts of
the maritime services, it's just not mandatory anymore.

Something else happened in the interim, an explosion in
Internet use, which has changed the landscape.

Which would have happened regardless of S25.5.

To paraphrase and expand on a statement by W3RV, amateur radio will
continue to exist because of things it offers that cannot be done with
the internet, email, cell phones or inexpensive long distance
telecommunications. Toss in GMRS/FRS, too. Example: most of the folks
who got ham licenses for honeydew purposes in the '80s and '90s now
have cellphones for that job. There's no point in running routine phone
patches when you can direct dial for a few pennies a minute.

Amateurs, by definition, have to build their facilities with
discretionary money, time and other resources. And no hope of any
financial return. Which means they have to really want to do it or it's
just not gonna happen. Classic "bell the cat" situation.

And removal or retention of various tests or other requirements will not change
any of that. Cell phones, computers and 'net connection have become a practical
necessity in most people's lives today.

73 de Jim, N2EY