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				July 7th 03, 01:11 PM
			
			
			
	
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			In article   ,  (Steve Robeson, K4CAP) writes:
 
 Once the official FCC changes are made, by whatever method, I wonder
 how long it will take the unlicensed to become licensed...Now that
 there's NO excuse remaining?
 
 There's always an excuse, Steve.
 
 Here are some predictions for ya:
 
 The dropping of the code test will not be accompanied by a significant change
 in the written exams.
 
 The dropping of the code test will not be accompanied by a significant,
 sustained increase in growth rate of the ARS. There may be a short term surge,
 and lots of upgrades, but total numbers will not skyrocket.
 
 The dropping of the code test will not be accompanied by a significant change
 in the modes and technologies used by hams. There will not be a
 technorevolution, nor big increases in experimentation or homebrewing. Just
 more of the same of what has been going on.
 
 ---
 
 Let's see what happens in the UK. RSGB and RA have been pushing to drop the
 code test for a long time. Maybe they won't be disappointed.
 
 Just wondering.
 
 Don't hold yer breath. The usual bureaucratic delay will slow things down here
 in the USA. And remember, those who get the licenses after the change will be
 raw, inexperienced newcomers, who will need our help and guidance as they are
 welcomed into the ARS.
 
 73 de Jim, N2EY
 
 
 
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