In article , "Ryan, KC8PMX"
writes:

"Bert Craig" wrote in message
et...
"Ryan, KC8PMX" wrote in message
...
Existing technicians may choose to utilize their
new privileges

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there've been any "new
privivleges" confered yet.

New privileges if the code requirement is dropped, as mentioned in the
thread in the past, and the basic tone of the thread in the first place.

If the FCC dumps Element 1 but makes no other changes to the rules, the only
folks to get any new privs will be Technicians who have not passed the code
test. They would get the same HF privileges as Novices and Techs who have
passed the code test.

Ironically, most of those privileges are for the use of code.

but the dropping of morse code completely is not going to
bring up our numbers any more than where we are at right now from a
month to month basis.

Probably correct.

Overall, from what I have seen listed in the N2EY postings, we average about
10,000 new licensees per month on average.

WHOA THERE!

The number of new ham licenses in the USA has been averaging about 2000 per
month for the past year or so, not 10,000. My posts in "ARS License Numbers"
show the current totals, not the number of new licenses.

Total growth in the 3 years and 3 months since restructuring has been about
10,000 hams.

There may be an inrush at first,
but for the most part I think it will still flatten back out to the average
10,000 per month growth. That is of course if nothing is done in regards to
promotion outside of the ham ranks more than is being done now.

There's a big difference between the number of new hams and the amount of
growth, because of expirations. Growth in the past 3+ years has been about 300
per month, not 10,000.

10,000 per month growth since restructuring would mean we'd be well over a
million US hams by now.

"N2EY" wrote in message
...
In article ,

(Steve Robeson, K4CAP) writes:

Once the official FCC changes are made, by whatever method, I wonder
how long it will take the unlicensed to become licensed...Now that
there's NO excuse remaining?

There's always an excuse, Steve.

Here's and interesting query...and probabbly a tad trollish, but I
wonder...

How long (or short, actually) will it take for many of the No-code Techs
that used to proclaim that their VHF and up allocation was all they wanted
because it completely satisfied their "technical" needs to suddenly become
Generals and Extras. I seem to remember reading how they could pass
Element
1 if they wanted to but it would gain them nothing. I wonder if that's
changed?

I imagine, (IMHO) that some may elect to use them, some may not. My crystal
ball is a little fuzzy on this one. I know it will be a few years before I
could, regardless of what happens.

Exactly the case for many folks. There are three reasons for folks in that
situation to upgrade:

1) To nail down a vanity call that they want before somebody else gets it

2) To be able to be a VE or control op without having to worry about privs.

3) To have the license in hand so that when their situation changes, they can
take advantage of it. Example: the ham living in an apartment with no HF setup
may someday get a big raise and move to their dream shack. If they have the
license in hand, they'll be able to use it immediately.

Back in the bad old days I got my Extra for a couple of reasons:

- I wanted all privileges
- it was there
- it was easier and cheaper to get the license than to build or buy a
calibrator that could tell me where the subband edges were
- I figured that the requirements would just keep getting tougher, so the thing
to do was get it ASAP.

73 de Jim, N2EY

73 de Jim, N2EY