"Larry Roll K3LT" wrote in message
...

Now that it seems as though code testing will finally be abolished in the
ARS, let's amuse ourselves with a bit of speculation as to what this will
mean in terms of future growth in the numbers of licensed amateur radio
operators in the United States. What do you think will happen? How
much growth do you think will occur, and how fast?

I predict that there will be no significant growth in new licensees.
Now, all we need to do is define the term "significant growth." We
currently
have around 600-some kilohams in the US. I'd call a five percent growth
factor, or 30,000 newly-licensed radio amateurs, to be significant. Let's
give this a year to happen. I say it won't. How say you? Keep in mind
that at this stage of the discussion, I'm just trying to establish
reasonable
parameters -- so let's all weigh in and try to arrive at a consensus as to
what any future growth could be. Then we can commit to our numbers
and see who gets it right -- or at least close.

73 de Larry, K3LT


Let's say a 5% growth above the current growth rate (the latter figure has
shown up previously on this news group but do not remember the figure). The
rate of growth of hams already exceeds the rate of growth of the general
population (again the data has shown up before on this newsgroup).

However, like you, I believe that there will be no noticeable increase in
the number of new hams and only a temporary surge in the number of upgrades.

What's sad is that when conditions deteriorate during a QSO and you say to
the other party "let's switch to CW" there will be too many who can't and
you'll just have to terminate the QSO.

Elimination of the code requirement may actually cause a loss in the ham
ranks, if not in numbers at least in activity. The elimination will
probably coincide with the early part of the bottom of the current sunspot
cycle. People will upgrade and quite a few will be so disappointed at the
poor activity that they will become quite inactive on HF and this
disappointment could spill over and affect their activity on VHF/UHF.

Dee D. Flint, N8UZE