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July 14th 03, 10:18 PM

ospam (Larry Roll K3LT) wrote in message ...
Now that it seems as though code testing will finally be abolished in the
ARS, let's amuse ourselves with a bit of speculation as to what this will
mean in terms of future growth in the numbers of licensed amateur radio
operators in the United States. What do you think will happen? How
much growth do you think will occur, and how fast?

This seems like a reasonable question, so I'll have a go.

I predict that when Element 1 is finally dropped:

- we'll have a surge of new hams for a year of two. This surge will
consist of growth about 3 times that of the past three years. But it
won't last

- once the surge is over, we'll have a growth rate a little greater
than what we have now. Maybe up to twice the current annual growth,
but probably more like 150%.

- there will be a big surge of upgrades, then a return to almost the
same level as before.

See below for actual numbers.

I predict that there will be no significant growth in new licensees.
Now, all we need to do is define the term "significant growth." We currently
have around 600-some kilohams in the US.

Closer to 700,000. Just under 687,000 as of yesterday.

We also have to define "growth" and how it is measured. We're
currently running in excess of 2,000 new licenses a month - offset by
large numbers of expirations. There are also wide swings in the
various numbers because of things like holidays, weather, processing
delays and varying numbers of VE sessions. Just look at the AH0A data
- the numbers wander all around. So it's important to take long-term
averages rather than wild extrapolations of short terms.

I say we define "growth" as increases in the total number of valid US
licenses held by individuals, regardless of license class, as reported
in the thread "ARS License Numbers". And the increases should be
measured in periods of at least a year.

I'd call a five percent growth
factor, or 30,000 newly-licensed radio amateurs, to be significant. Let's
give this a year to happen. I say it won't. How say you?

How about we do our predictions in terms of annual totals:

How many hams a year after Element 1 goes away?
How many hams two years....
How many hams three years...

I say the total number of US hams will grow to 700,000 in about a
year, 710,000 in two years, and then the growth will slow down to at
best 5,000 per year.

Or:

700,000 after 1 year
710,000 after 2 years
715,000 after 3 years
720,000 after 4 years

Etc.

(based on a starting point of about 688,000)

Or to put it another way:

Growth of ~12,000 the first year
Growth of ~10,000 the second year
Growth of ~5,000 the third and following years.

Current growth is about 3,000 per year.

Keep in mind
that at this stage of the discussion, I'm just trying to establish reasonable
parameters -- so let's all weigh in and try to arrive at a consensus as to
what any future growth could be. Then we can commit to our numbers
and see who gets it right -- or at least close.

I hope my predicted numbers are too low.

73 de Jim, N2EY