"N2EY" wrote in message
...
In article , "Carl R. Stevenson"
writes:

(Vipul wrote
what does it matter about ARS license numbers?

Numbers = use of our spectrum = justification for keeping what we have
(and maybe getting a bit more in the future)

Not necessarily! What really matters is how many ACTIVE hams we have, and
how
active they are.

I agree that that is true, but in purely political terms, the number of
licensees counts,
too.

There are more US hams now than ever before. More modes, more activities,
smaller and much less expensive equipment, etc. We have about the same
amount
of spectrum below 500 MHz as we had 45 years ago, when there were fewer
than
half as many US hams. (WARC-79 added 250 kHz of HF in 3 bands, and we lost
220-222 MHz about a dozen years after that).

But are the bands full-to-busting with activity 24/7? Yes, it's hard to
coordinate a new repeater in some metro areas - but are all the existing
ones
tied up around the clock so that we need more?

That's a whole different argument.

with today's demographic,

What IS today's demographic? Do you have a reliable source?

The last data I saw, the average age of US hams was somewhere
in the 60's ... how that's changed in the last couple of years is probably
anyone's guess, since the age data no longer seems to be available,
but I doubt it's come down dramatically.

the sad reality is that a large
percentage of current hams will be SK in the next 10-20 years, resulting
in a major drop in our numbers unless we make ham radio more attractive
and interesting to the younger generation.

Actually, the younger generation first has to know ham radio even exists.

This is true ...

To do that, we can't force the
PC/internet generation to cling to/embrace some "traditions" (such as
Morse)
in which the "older generation" iks so deeply invested (in an emotional
sense).

How do you know, Carl?

It seems obvious that you generally can't force anyone to do something
they don't want to do ...

eliminating Morse testing will help

No, it won't. The entry-level license is already code free. Eliminating
Morse testing will not cause more people to want to join.

I disagree. Eliminating Morse testing will remove a barrier to advancement
that many folks find disagreeable ... keep the carrot, eliminate the stick.

Many folks are interested in HF access as part of their "portfolio" of
capabilities ... the entry level license currently precludes them from
HF use ... that is a major disincentive to many.

I disagree 100%, but let's put that aside for a moment.

We obviously disagree. What makes you think that "Many folks are interested
in HF access as part of their 'portfolio' of capabilities." ???
(That the entry level license currently precludes them from HF use is a fact
and
I don't see how you could begin to dispute that.)

Suppose tomorrow morning, next week or next month, by some method or
another,
FCC just dumps Element 1 and merges the Tech and Tech Plus licenses. The
entry-level license will then have some HF access, consisting of little
CW-only
slivers of 80, 40 and 15 meters, plus a slightly bigger chunk of 10 meters
with
SSB and CW. All with a power limitation. Above 30 MHz, though, the entry
level
license has all privileges. Is that really the best arrangement? Will the
removal of Element 1 fix that alleged disincentive problem?

I believe so ... getting even a "taste" of HF operation as a Tech will be a
good
thing.

I also believe that many current Techs will upgrade to General rather
promptly
once the code test goes away. (some won't, being content with their current
privs, but I believe many will want to extend their privs to HF and will
take,
and pass, the General written to get there).

Or are other changes needed?

Is that supposed to be a "trick question" ???

NCI's "agenda" is to eliminate Morse testing.

Carl - wk3c