chuck wrote:
This study found that 20% of the observed charges were greater than 1.6
pC. Or, 80% were below 1.6 pC. At least it doesn't contradict your
hypothesis.

One other thought based on Richard C's comments:
Your calculation didn't take reflections in a resonant
antenna system into account which could cause the maximum
voltage to be a couple of magnitudes larger at the antinodes.
That assumes the burst of RF from the discharge is a few
cycles long at the resonant frequency. As an IEEE paper
says, resonance can cause "voltage magnification by coherent
spatial modes".
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com