Is A New Solar Cycle Beginning?
[soho-uv-wavelength-image-sun-bg.jpg]
From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive
(white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude
active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a
new solar cycle.
by Dr. Tony Phillips
Huntsville AL (SPX) Dec 17, 2007

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been
any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a
modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec.
11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). It may not look like much, but "this
patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar
physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity,
marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms
in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin? It could
be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity
sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with
opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar
cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and
longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle
spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is
high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem:
There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic
fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot,
scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially
begun.

Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking
in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on
telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't
forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones,
the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually
take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception.
"We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it
become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle? Stay tuned for updates
from Science@NASA.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

73, Jeff KH6O


--
Intelligence Specialist Chief Petty Officer
U.S. Coast Guard, Dept. of Homeland Security

On Jan 9, 2:48 am, (Jeffrey Herman) wrote:
Is A New Solar Cycle Beginning?
[soho-uv-wavelength-image-sun-bg.jpg]From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive

(white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude
active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a
new solar cycle.
by Dr. Tony Phillips
Huntsville AL (SPX) Dec 17, 2007

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been
any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a
modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec.
11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). It may not look like much, but "this
patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar
physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity,
marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms
in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin? It could
be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity
sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with
opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar
cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and
longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle
spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is
high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem:
There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic
fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot,
scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially
begun.

Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking
in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on
telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't
forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones,
the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually
take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception.
"We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it
become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle? Stay tuned for updates
from Science@NASA.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

73, Jeff KH6O

--
Intelligence Specialist Chief Petty Officer
U.S. Coast Guard, Dept. of Homeland Security

From NOAA... http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...4_sunspot.html

"First official sunspot belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24.

+ High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)
A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it
increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and
airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM
transactions, showed signs it was on its way late yesterday when the
cycle's first sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA
scientists said."

Perhaps we are at the begining for DX conditons to improve in the not
so distant future.

73