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Old May 17th 11, 10:30 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.info
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Default Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 09 - 15 May 2011

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 May 17 1420 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 May 2011

Solar activity was at very low to low levels with isolated B and
C-class flares observed. Two CMEs on the earthward side of the sun
were observed during the period. The first CME was associated with a
C5 x-ray event at 09/2059 UTC from a region rounding the NE limb. It
appeared to be the return of old Region 1193 (N17, L=266). This
event produced a partial-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky
velocity of 1225 km/s, based on SOHO/LASCO imagery. The second CME
was associated with a B8 x-ray event at 11/0243 UTC, likely
associated with a filament eruption between Region 1205 (N14, L=036,
class/area Bxo/010 on 03 May) and Region 1207 (N24, L=007,
class/area Bxo/020 on 05 May). Associated with the second CME was a
Type II radio sweep (632 km/s). Based on SOHO/LASCO imagery, the
estimated plane-of-sky velocity was 420 km/s. The rest of the disk
was populated with numerous small, magnetically simple spot groups.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 09 May and at moderate levels 10 - 15 May.

Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to active levels during the
period. Activity was at quiet levels on 09 May. Levels increased to
quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods on 10 - 11 May.
This increase in activity was associated with the onset of a CH HSS.
Activity decreased to quiet levels from 12 - 13 May before
increasing to unsettled to active conditions midday on 14 May with
the onset of another CH HSS. Conditions were mostly quiet to
unsettled on 15 May as weak HSS effects continued.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 May - 13 June 2011

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through
the forecast period. There is a slight chance for isolated periods
of moderate levels due to the possible emergence of new regions as
well as the return of old regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high flux levels during 18 - 20 May,
normal to moderate flux levels on 21 - 26 May and back to moderate
to high flux levels 27 - 29 May. This forecast is based on
anticipated recurrent CH HSS influences.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to
unsettled levels on 17 May due to continued recurrent CH HSS
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels
during 18 - 25 May. The field is expected to be under the influence
of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS during 26 - 30 May. During
this period, quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with isolated
active periods on 27 May. Mostly quiet conditions are forecasted to
return 31 May - 5 June, before another CH HSS is expected to return.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 6 - 7 June from
this small feature, before returning to quiet conditions 8 - 10
June. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected to return
11 - 13 June as HSS effects from the CH we are currently under the
influence of should return.

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Old May 24th 11, 01:48 PM
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