:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 0425 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 October - 06 November 2016

Solar activity was very low through the period with only a few
isolated low-level B-class flaring observed from Regions 2604 (N07,
L=261, class/area Bxo/010 on 29 October) and 2605 (N07, L=191,
class/area Cro/030 on 31 October). Other activity included several
filament eruptions. The first was a filament eruption centered near
S10W40 observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 04/0230 UTC with an
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in coronagraph
imagery off the west limb beginning at 04/0736 UTC. The second
filament eruption occurred between 05/0200-0500 UTC in SDO/AIA 193
imagery centered near N24W15. An associated partial halo CME was
observed in coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/0424 UTC. WSA Enlil
modelling of the CMEs predicted an arrival approximately early to
midday on 08 November.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 21,357 pfu
at 31/2030 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar
wind parameters were in decline over the period on the trailing end
of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Solar wind speed declined steadily from near 580 km/s to around 305
km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 8 nT
with prolonged periods of southward Bz from 02-03 November. The
geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 31 October-01
November and 04 November, quiet to active levels on 02-03 November,
and quiet levels on 05-06 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 November - 03 December 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares over the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be moderate levels with high levels likely on 07, 10-19,
and 22 November-03 December due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 08 November and unsettled levels on 09 November due to the
arrival of the 04 and 05 November CMEs. Unsettled to active levels
are also expected from 10-15 and 19-30 November with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 12-13, 21-23, and 25 November and
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 21-22 November due
to recurrent CH HSS effects.