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Old December 5th 16, 04:30 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info
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Default Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 28 November - 04 December 2016

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 0607 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 November - 04 December 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels over the
period. Very low levels were observed on 01-03 December, low levels
were observed on 28 and 30 November and again on 04 December while
moderate levels were observed on 29 November. Region 2615 (S07,
L=139, class/area Dai/170 on 04 December) was responsible for the
majority of the solar activity over the period since its inception
late on 28 November. This region was responsible for 11 C-class
flares and two M-class flares; an M1/Sn at 29/1723 UTC and an M1/Sf
at 29/2338 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were
observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 41,607 pfu
observed at 28/1640 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels
during the period. The period began as solar wind parameters were
slowly recovering from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from
approximately 570 km/s early in the period to near 280 km/s by the
end. Total field values ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT. The geomagnetic
field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 28 November. Quiet levels
were observed from 29 November through 04 December.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 December - 31 December 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares
on 05-10 December and again from 24-31 December due to potential
solar activity from Region 2615. The rest of the forecast period is
expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on
05-06, 10-18, and 22-31 December due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 05, 07-11, and 19-25 December with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels likely on 08-09 and 21-22 December due to recurrent CH
HSS activity.


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