:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 23 0615 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 January 2017

Solar activity was at low levels due to a C9/1f flare observed at
21/0726 UTC from Region 2628 (N12, L=173, class/area Dao/210 on 22
January). Region 2628 was responsible for additional C-class flaring
on 21 January. The rest of the period was at very low levels. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 16-17, and
20-22 January. The largest flux value of the period was 3,090 pfu
observed at 16/1935 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over
the period. Solar wind parameters were indicative of background
conditions to start the period. Early on 18 January, wind speed
began to increase as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Wind speed reached a maximum
value of 651 km/s at 19/0320 UTC and total field peaked at 17 nT at
18/0605 UTC before gradually decreasing throughout the remainder of
the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 16-17
January, quiet to active levels on 18-19 & 21 January, and quiet
to unsettled levels on 20 & 22 January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 January - 18 February 2017

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares on 23-31 January and 14-18 February due to the flare
potential in Region 2628. Very low levels are expected on 01-13
February.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 23-27 January, 01-13 February, and again on 16-18 February due to
CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 23, 27-31 January, 01-07 February and 14-18 February with
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 03 February due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.