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ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP22 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA May 28, 2021 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP022 ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA The 10.7 cm solar flux rose this week, and on Wednesday May 26 it reached 88, the highest since December 7, 2020, when it was 89.5. The next day the 2300 UTC flux value was 94.2. The official flux value is always the local noon reading at Canada's Dominion Radio Astrophysical Research Facility (see https://bit.ly/3fpiAiS ) in Penticton, British Columbia, 177 miles northeast of my Seattle QTH. You can see the thrice daily readings at https://bit.ly/3hT1hsk . Average daily solar flux rose this week to 77.8 from last week's average of 74.2, while the average daily sunspot number increased from 20.3 to 24.9. I hope this signals a return to the enhanced activity and HF conditions we saw at the end of 2020, and a resumption of solar cycle 25's upward climb. Predicted solar flux over the next month is 83, 81, 80 and 76 on May 28 to 31, 72 on June 1 to 3, 73 on June 4, 74 on June 5 to 10, 75 on June 11, 77 on June 12 to 15, 79 on June 16 to 23, and 76 on June 24 to 29. Predicted planetary A index is 10, 5, 8, 5 and 8 on May 28 through June 1, then 5 on June 2 and beyond, possibly into mid-July. Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 28 til June 22, 2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH. "Geomagnetic field will be Quiet on: May (30 and 31,) June 9 and 10, 12 and 13 Quiet to unsettled on: June 1 to 8, 17 to 20 Quiet to active on: May 28 and 29, June 11, 14 to 16, 21 and 22 Unsettled to active: Nothing predicted Active to disturbed: Nothing predicted Solar wind will intensify on May 28 to 30, June (7,) 9, (14 and 15, 17 to 19, 22) Remarks: - The increased geomagnetic activity on May 26-27 was due to solar flares with CME on May 22. Therefore, it could not be predicted last time, ie on May 20. - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. - Accuracy of the forecast remains lower." Jon Jones N0JK reports from Kansas: "The summer 2021 sporadic E season is off to a strong start. Here in Kansas I had Europe in on 6 Meters May 19. DK1MAX peaked to -3 dB with audible tones at 1540z. Earliest I have had Europe on 6 Meter Es. May 26 Hawaii to the Midwest on 6 Meters. KF0M (EM17) in Wichita, KS had KH6CJJ on Maui up to -4 dB around 2000z. The Hawaiians were in over an hour." The mode was FT8. "Hi Tad -- Quite a surprise for the solar flux to jump up into the 80s and then the 90s today (Thursday). I was trying out a modified small HF loop (homebrew) on my kayak in the Mokelumne River in Northern California today and wasn't getting out very well. Then I thought I'd give 17m SSB a final try before packing up my gear. Transmitter power was 12 watts. Heard two VKs coming in loud and clear, and managed to catch VK2CPC, Les, just as he finished a QSO. He gave me a 3-3 report and managed to get my call sign correct. Fortunately my kayak was in such a position that the loop was aimed toward Australia. And, my buddy caught two bass. Good day for both of us. bil paul, KD6JUI Dixon CA" Michael May, WB8VLC in Oregon reported: "Another weird week of non ham activity on 10 meters to report along with lots of 6 meter activity. The most interesting thing heard on 10 meters was not ham contacts. It was non ham intruders heard this past Sunday while tuning around 10 meters looking for beacons when I came across some North Korean fishing boats operating on 28.175 and 28.275 MHZ FM mode. This was at 2120 UTC May 22, 2021 and the signals were in for the next 2 hours. The attached recording is condensed from over a 2 hour period. (email K7RA for a 836 KB MP3 copy.) A co-worker listened to the recording and said it sounds like a North Korean dialect and after more research we found that they are most likely squid fishing boats around the Asiatic Russian coast north of Japan and east of mainland Asiatic Russia, where these boats are typically found. The signals peak on my 4 el 10 meter OWA at 330 degrees. I have not heard these signals in over 9 years which leads me to think that a 10 meter FM path to Japan is possible, research on these boats indicates only 25 watts of FM carrier with 102 inch whips. No real interesting 10 meter ham contacts to list as the North Korean fishing boats is certainly enough for my 10 meter listing. 6 meters was my best band over the past 2 weeks for real ham to ham QSOs and here are some of the interesting ones. All of the 6 meter SSB contacts were well over S9 both ways and the QSOs lasted for over 45 minutes each, real rag chews. On 6 meters SSB/FT8/CW I use my K3S to a 6 element high gain Yagi on the same boom as my 4 elements for 10 meters and 500 watts from a home made LDMOS amplifier. On 6 meter FM I use the Hygain V-6R stacked 5/8th wave, 25 foot long co-linear vertical and 110 watts with a GE Orion FM land mobile transceiver. 6 meter contacts, all times/dates UTC: 2021-05-18 0327 KH6HI 50.313 FT8 BL01xi 2021-05-19 0420 VE8CK 50.313 FT8 DP22TK 2021-05-22 0241 W5WTX 50.090 CW DM95cc 2021-05-23 1859 VE3WN 50.313 FT8 FN03ht 2021-05-24 0035 W0VTT 50.098 CW EN33xx 2021-05-24 0120 TI2ALF 50.313 FT8 EJ79xv 2021-05-26 0229 KG4HOT 50.180 SSB FM07pt 2021-05-26 0232 KD4AA 50.180 SSB FM17ur 2021-05-26 0243 WB7PMP 50.180 SSB EM95pu 2021-05-26 0335 KA6NLS/rptr 51.940 FM DM35cd Kingman, AZ 2021-05-26 1525 VA3IKE 50.313 FT8 EN82qb" N1API reported last week: "I suppose by now you have heard of the 6 meter opening on May 19. I was fortunate to work a total of 59 stations on FT8. The most amazing thing was that band was still open into Europe at 10 PM Local which would be 2 AM or later in Europe depending on how deep the opening was. Stations from the US were also seen. The next morning at daybreak had signals from Spain and Italy on 6 meters. I can't remember seeing conditions like this before." N4SO reports: "In the weird category, my signal was picked up on Pskreporter in Ukraine. The notation, a one and ONLY, reads as follows: Rx at Monday, 17 May 2021 18:08 GMT From N4SO BY UX0ZAB Loc KN66au15 Frequency 28.074.741 MHz (10m) FT8 -13DB Distance 9552 km bearing 36 degrees The map location shows Ukraine. At that time, I was transmitting, both calling CQ, and working mostly USA. UX0ZAB, is a monitoring station and we did not make a contact, other than his reception report of my signal. I realize that UX0ZAB is not a Ukraine call sign but they move around a lot." Check this web site for synoptic map images: https://nso.edu/data/nisp-data/synoptic-maps/ It has been a long time since we presented a link to an article about the important work of astronomer Hisako Koyama: https://youtu.be/LxM9PhcY_90 https://bit.ly/3uy4DDz Thanks to K5FB for these links on long term solar flux prediction: https://bit.ly/2TqQCef https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...38-4365/abef6d New solar telescope planned for Canary Islands: https://bit.ly/3hZThWk News from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman: https://youtu.be/qCtYMVjdMwM For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for May 20 through 26, 2021 were 13, 13, 19, 30, 29, 36, and 34, with a mean of 24.9. 10.7 cm flux was 72.3, 73.7, 75.6, 79, 72.7, 83.5, and 88, with a mean of 77.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 7, 5, 4, 4, 3, and 13, with a mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 5, 4, 2, 3, and 12, with a mean of 7.3. NNNN /EX |
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