:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 May 09 0436 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 May 2016

Solar activity was low and only C-class flare activity was observed.
Region 2540 (N21, L=068, class/area=Hrx/20 on 01 May) produced a C3
flare at 02/0842 UTC which was the largest event of the period.
Region 2535 (N05, L=124, class/area=Hax/60 on 24 Apr) produced a C1
flare at 04/1531 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep
(est. shock speed 560 km/s) and coronal mass ejection (CME). This
CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery beginning
04/1412 UTC and likely arrived at Earth early on 08 May (see geomag
section below for additional information). A pair of filament
eruptions centered near N22E39 and N31E42 were observed in GONG
imagery beginning at around 07/1515 UTC. The associated CME was
first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery at 07/1648 UTC but analysis
indicated that this CME was not Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 03-06 May and moderate levels on 02, 07-08 May.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 02 May with quiet to active levels on 03
May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet levels were observed on 04 May and
quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 05 May under a nominal
solar wind regime. The onset of a positive polarity CH HSS caused
quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 06 May and quiet to active
levels on 07 May. On 08 May G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms
were observed and analysis suggested that a CME (likely from 04 May
as mentioned in solar activity section) was embedded in a CIR
preceding a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 May - 04 June 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low (B-class flares) to low
(C-class flares) levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach very high levels on 10-13 May and high levels on
09, 14, and 30 May-02 Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected for the
remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach G3 (Strong)
geomagnetic storm levels on 09 May and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 10
May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20 May
due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS as well as on 29
May and 04 Jun due to the influence of negative polarity CH HSSs.