On Jul 26, 7:50?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

While I expected a lot of upgrading to happen, this is more than I would
have expected in so short a time.

Consider a few factors, Dee:

1) There was a lot of notice that the changes were coming.
2) The changes reduced the number and types of test needed to upgrade
to General or Extra. Like a price reduction on an item.
3) While the raw numbers may look like a lot, compare them to the
percentages. Generals went from being 19.9% of US hams to 21.7%, while
Extras went from 16.5 to 17.0 %.

And yet in another way, I'm surprised
that there are not even more people upgrading. I wonder if there are a lot
of inactive hams that just aren't getting the word?

All sorts of factors:

- Some hams haven't gotten the word
- Some hams are inactive but still in the database
- Some hams are perfectly satisfied with the license they have
- Some hams are studying for their upgrade, waiting for a nearby VE
session, etc.
- Some hams are holding onto their old license classes for a variety
of reasons. For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't. Others have told
me that they're sure FCC will eventually give Advanceds a free upgrade
to Extra, so they're just waiting it out. At least one I know feels
insulted that it takes the same testing to go from General to Extra as
it does to go from Advanced to Extra.

All sorts of other reasons.

Perhaps there is someone out there who is determined to be the last
Extra or the last Novice on the books.

With 10 year licensing, it's possible that a considerable percentage
of the US amateur population has dropped out but still shows up in the
database. For example, if 2% of the US amateur population dies per
year, and the total is relatively stable, there will be approximately
10% of the total who are dead but whose licenses are still valid. (I
got this number by assuming that it's equally likely for a ham to die
in any year of the 10 year license term, which means that the median
would be 5 years. 5 years times 2% is 10%).

2% may be a low number, too - it assumes that the *average* amateur is
licensed for 50 years.

In any event, at least the steady decline in the ARS license numbers
since 2003 or so seems to have stopped.

73 de Jim, N2EY