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-   -   The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where? (https://www.radiobanter.com/policy/112201-code-wars-its-done-now-where.html)

K4YZ December 22nd 06 03:40 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
From Morkie's Blog:

QUOTE

a rejoiner to "now you are HF active"

first I thank the author for his thought wether or I not I agree with
you I do respect.
OTOH I simply feel you and others have failed to understand what you
were up against in the Code test fight which I don't consider quite
over yet, anymore than "mission acomlished" was the end of the Iraq
war.

UNQUOTE

Oh, we (the pro-code camp) KNEW what we were up against...Mostly
the overwhelming attitude of a voiciferous "gimmegimmegimme" generation
that would never be satisfied until they could get "something for
nothing" or as close to nothing as possible.

The written tests have been gutted for years. Colleges that used
to allow extra-curricular credit for possessing an Amateur License no
long do it since the questions are public domain and therefore negates
any evidence that the holder really "knows" anything about radio.

Now the one and only "skill" test is gone too.

There is an overwhelming "give me more for less" mindset these
days, and indeed Amateur Radio is an minute part of that mindset, but
it's here and it's done.

Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from now. I
for one will be watching with bated breath to see if this in-rush of
new operators shows up. I say "it ain't a hap'nin thing"

As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's going to be
an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs to HF licenses. There
will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

Any Takers?

Steve, K4YZ


KC8GXW-Jim December 23rd 06 03:37 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
K4YZ wrote:
From Morkie's Blog:


QUOTE

a rejoiner to "now you are HF active"

first I thank the author for his thought wether or I not I agree with
you I do respect.
OTOH I simply feel you and others have failed to understand what you
were up against in the Code test fight which I don't consider quite
over yet, anymore than "mission acomlished" was the end of the Iraq
war.

UNQUOTE

Oh, we (the pro-code camp) KNEW what we were up against...Mostly
the overwhelming attitude of a voiciferous "gimmegimmegimme" generation
that would never be satisfied until they could get "something for
nothing" or as close to nothing as possible.

The written tests have been gutted for years. Colleges that used
to allow extra-curricular credit for possessing an Amateur License no
long do it since the questions are public domain and therefore negates
any evidence that the holder really "knows" anything about radio.

Now the one and only "skill" test is gone too.

There is an overwhelming "give me more for less" mindset these
days, and indeed Amateur Radio is an minute part of that mindset, but
it's here and it's done.

Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from now. I
for one will be watching with bated breath to see if this in-rush of
new operators shows up. I say "it ain't a hap'nin thing"

As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's going to be
an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs to HF licenses. There
will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

Any Takers?

Steve, K4YZ

Two no-coders were talking on a remote repeater. They were planning on
doing in, or what sounded like they were going to hurt someone. They
quite clearly were discussing killing a guy. They said they were gonna
go someplace called eleven and shoot skip. Not knowing who 'skip' was, I
prayed for his safety.

On one of those rare occasions that I actually talked to a no-coder on
2-meters, I was on 146.52 simplex. The conversation was going well till
out of no where the familiar flash of ignorance reared it's head again.
The No-Coder was really proud of the fact that my signal was as strong
on the reverse as it was on 52. Where do these people come from ?

Another No-Code funny. During a recent weather net, an OLD guy but a
no-coder no less checked into the net as a mobile enroute to spotting
location. A few minutes later, he notified net control that he was
*destinated. Net control asked for his QTH. The No-Coder responded, The
drive thru at McDonalds.

What's with all the no-coders and vanity calls. Do these idiots actually
think people will think their old timers? Guess again. The minute they
open their mouth the cat will be out of the bag. Real ham's won't ask
you what your First Personal is.

KH6HZ December 23rd 06 05:00 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
"K4YZ" wrote:

The written tests have been gutted for years.


Colleges that used to allow extra-curricular credit for
possessing an Amateur License no long do it


To be fair, I do not know of any college that has done this since well
before I attended undergraduate school in the early 80's. I believe that in
some cases you could (successfully) petition a school for credit under the
guise of "real life experience" being a "replacement" for required class
work. However, as a rule of thumb I do not believe having an amateur license
has given you any college credit at a mainstream university since the mid
70's, if not before that.


Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from
now. I for one will be watching with bated breath to see
if this in-rush of new operators shows up. I say "it ain't
a hap'nin thing"


I agree, but for reasons I will outline below.


As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's
going to be an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs
to HF licenses.


I agree with the Tech upgrade aspect of your comment. If you look at ham
radio statistics on Speroni's web site, you can see that since the
restructuring that occurred in 2000, there has been a continual uptick in
"extra" class licenses and a steady decrease in other license classes.

(The only exception to this is the Tech license, which, as the de-facto
'entry level' license, is logically going to see the most growth. It is the
first license most people obtain, and its the only license you can get w/o
the "hurdle" of the code test. Thus, the Tech license is the 30mhz
equivalent of the Extra-class license, in the sense that w/o element 1a it
was the license class you "topped out" at.)

The reason for trend simple: There is no compelling reason for an "active"
licensee *not* to upgrade to the highest grade available. The major
stumbling block for most amateurs -- the component which required the most
work to pass -- has always been the code test. Once a licensee overcomes the
hurdle of the 5wpm code test, the additional tests to upgrade to Extra are
minimal. After all, the existing theory examinations do not actually test
radio knowledge, they test your ability to rote memorize the question pool.
I daresay that

With the removal of element 1a, there is no reason for many of the current
Tech licenses to take, and pass, the theory examinations to obtain HF
privileges.

I think there will be a noticable decline in Tech licenses, and an increase
in General and Extra class tickets, as those folks migrate into HF
privileges.

I also think the amount will be less than you expect. I think the migration
will be measurable, but overall a lot less than most people expect. Much for
the same reason why the decrease in the General license has been steady, but
minimal each month. Many people are satisfied with the operating privileges
they have, and they have no need to upgrade further. Those Techs who have no
intention of working HF will more than likely remain Techs.



will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.


I disagree with this assessment entirely. I believe the uptick in "new"
licenses as the result of this change will be statistically insignificant.
Total licenses have been decreasing steadily since April 03. This latest
change will not change that trend.

Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease. I do not believe there is this
huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join the
amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o a code
test.

Oh, I'm sure someone will pop in with the inevitable "I have a friend who
(insert story here) and will only become an amateur once the code test is
removed because his interests lay on HF".

I'm sure there *ARE* some of those people. Are there a lot of them? I
seriously doubt it. So, I think the net result of this change will be a
measureable albeit minor bump in new licenses, if any noticable difference
at all. Almost all these folks will obtain a Tech license and then
immediately migrate into a General or Extra-class license.



I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.


For a few months, you *may* see a higher-than-average rate of increase in
those license classes, but I wouldn't even give it 12 months -- I would say
within 3 to 6 months, any influx of "new blood" will be minimal.

Within that same time period I do not think you will see a reversal of the
trend in a decreasing number of licensed amateurs. The overall rate of
decline may slow, but I do not expect this change to reverse the negative
slope.

Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

My children are 17, 12, and 8. None of them express any type of interest
whatsoever in ham radio. Computers, cell phones, text-messaging -- all
staples of the modern world. 50 years ago, radio was a common staple of
every household, and naturally, a source of education.

Today, my kids are interested in C# programming, not how the radio works.

The cell phone killed the utility of radio.

Talk around the world on a radio? Why do I need to spend $2000 on a decent
HF setup when I can turn on my $500 dell and do the same thing?



Overall, Steve, I think some of your observations are dead-on, while others
are misguided. Only time will tell, naturally.

73
KH6HZ



Mike Coslo December 24th 06 02:05 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"K4YZ" wrote:

The written tests have been gutted for years.


Colleges that used to allow extra-curricular credit for
possessing an Amateur License no long do it


To be fair, I do not know of any college that has done this since well
before I attended undergraduate school in the early 80's. I believe
that in some cases you could (successfully) petition a school for
credit under the guise of "real life experience" being a "replacement"
for required class work. However, as a rule of thumb I do not believe
having an amateur license has given you any college credit at a
mainstream university since the mid 70's, if not before that.


PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.




Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from
now. I for one will be watching with bated breath to see
if this in-rush of new operators shows up. I say "it ain't
a hap'nin thing"


I agree, but for reasons I will outline below.


As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's
going to be an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs
to HF licenses.


I agree with the Tech upgrade aspect of your comment. If you look at
ham radio statistics on Speroni's web site, you can see that since the
restructuring that occurred in 2000, there has been a continual uptick
in "extra" class licenses and a steady decrease in other license
classes.

(The only exception to this is the Tech license, which, as the
de-facto 'entry level' license, is logically going to see the most
growth. It is the first license most people obtain, and its the only
license you can get w/o the "hurdle" of the code test. Thus, the Tech
license is the 30mhz equivalent of the Extra-class license, in the
sense that w/o element 1a it was the license class you "topped out"
at.)

The reason for trend simple: There is no compelling reason for an
"active" licensee *not* to upgrade to the highest grade available. The
major stumbling block for most amateurs -- the component which
required the most work to pass -- has always been the code test. Once
a licensee overcomes the hurdle of the 5wpm code test, the additional
tests to upgrade to Extra are minimal. After all, the existing theory
examinations do not actually test radio knowledge, they test your
ability to rote memorize the question pool. I daresay that

With the removal of element 1a, there is no reason for many of the
current Tech licenses to take, and pass, the theory examinations to
obtain HF privileges.

I think there will be a noticable decline in Tech licenses, and an
increase in General and Extra class tickets, as those folks migrate
into HF privileges.

I also think the amount will be less than you expect. I think the
migration will be measurable, but overall a lot less than most people
expect. Much for the same reason why the decrease in the General
license has been steady, but minimal each month. Many people are
satisfied with the operating privileges they have, and they have no
need to upgrade further. Those Techs who have no intention of working
HF will more than likely remain Techs.



will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next
12 months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.


I disagree with this assessment entirely. I believe the uptick in
"new" licenses as the result of this change will be statistically
insignificant. Total licenses have been decreasing steadily since
April 03. This latest change will not change that trend.


Those licenses - by and large - are the "Honeydo" Hams. These
people picked up the Technician license and communicated with the XYL or
OM to tell them to stop on the way home and get bred.... Opps! make that
bread.


Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease.


If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I do not believe there is
this huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join
the amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o
a code test.


I'm agreed with you there.

Oh, I'm sure someone will pop in with the inevitable "I have a friend
who (insert story here) and will only become an amateur once the code
test is removed because his interests lay on HF".


Then they have cheated themselves out of many years of enjoyment.
Their loss.


I'm sure there *ARE* some of those people. Are there a lot of them? I
seriously doubt it. So, I think the net result of this change will be
a measureable albeit minor bump in new licenses, if any noticable
difference at all. Almost all these folks will obtain a Tech license
and then immediately migrate into a General or Extra-class license.



I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't
have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.


For a few months, you *may* see a higher-than-average rate of increase
in those license classes, but I wouldn't even give it 12 months -- I
would say within 3 to 6 months, any influx of "new blood" will be
minimal.
Within that same time period I do not think you will see a reversal of
the trend in a decreasing number of licensed amateurs. The overall
rate of decline may slow, but I do not expect this change to reverse
the negative slope.


That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.


No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.



My children are 17, 12, and 8. None of them express any type of
interest whatsoever in ham radio. Computers, cell phones,
text-messaging -- all staples of the modern world. 50 years ago, radio
was a common staple of every household, and naturally, a source of
education.


Ham radio was a common staple in the household 50 years ago?


Today, my kids are interested in C# programming, not how the radio
works.


Okay, my son is interested in programming also. His lack of
interest in radio has nothing to do with Cell phones, text messaging, or
the internet.

The cell phone killed the utility of radio.


Especially for those Honeydo Hams. But then again, they weren't
interested in radio anyhow - just what it could do for them. And Cell
phones indeed did what they needed, and did it better.


Talk around the world on a radio? Why do I need to spend $2000 on a
decent HF setup when I can turn on my $500 dell and do the same thing?


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.

Now if ya really want to know what I think is the pressing problem,
and the biggest threat to the future of Ham radio, I'll tell you.

Tune across 75/80 meters in the evening. Plenty of good, code
tested (I'm assuming) amateurs who seem to have enough anger stored in
their gullet to increase the blood pressure of ten normal people. They
are mad at people like myself who are nickle Extras, they are mad at the
new "crop of CB'ers" who are coming along since the FCC caved into the
the forces of evil and eliminated Element 1. Hate, Hate, Hate. Frankly
they sound a lot more like CB'ers than they know. Sorry, but a tune
across 80 meters, and a lot of 20 meters puts the lie to how Morse
testing keeps up the neighborhood. The question to ask is would you want
your kids hanging out with these folk?

I firmly believe that the biggest threat to Amateur Radio at this
time is the grouchy, grumpy Hams that turn every conversation into
bitching about the great unwashed are destroying the hobby. Making sure
that the new guys and gals feel perfectly unwelcome. Especially
endearing is that many of them lack the social graces to avoid telling
the newbies to their face about their hatred for them. First class folk,
eh? It didn't bother me too much, but I have a mostly tough hide. But it
does scare away a lot of folk.

I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.

It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

What are you (collectivley speaking) going to do - help - or just
make it as unpleasant for the new folk as possible?

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -


KH6HZ December 24th 06 02:52 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
"Mike Coslo" wrote:

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.


None of the area colleges do it -- that is, give instant credit because you
have a ham license. Like I previously stated, though, I believe some (if not
most) would allow you to petition for credit on the basis of 'life
experience', and you probably would have a relative degree of success.


If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I doubt if you take anyone off the street at random they could pass any
element test. However, study materials are easily obtained and, IMO,
virtually anyone can pass with a minimal amount of effort put into studying
them.


That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.


No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


In the mid 90's when I routinely posted to this newsgroup, I made many
observations that I felt the number of licensed hams was being artifically
increased due to the extension of the licensing term from 5 to 10 years.
Likewise, I made comments regarding the attrition rate of licensees
resulting from the Tech license.

Starting in early '03, almost 12 years to the month the Tech license came on
the scene (10 year license term + 2 year grace period), the number of
licensed hams has steadily declined. This negative slope has continued,
relatively unabated, for the past 3 years. I do not expect it to reverse the
trend ever again. The best that may happen is there may be some form of
equilibrum achieved where the number of licensed hams remains constant +/- a
few thousand as expirations and new licensees fluctuate.


Ham radio was a common staple in the household 50 years ago?


No, radio. Radio was the "tech" of the '50s. Today, that "tech" takes other
forms: computers, cell phones, etc.


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.


What draws people to amateur radio? The technical aspect, or the utility
aspect?

It is my opinion that over the past 2 decades, the utility aspect of ham
radio has been the main drawing point, not the tech aspect. I think the tech
aspect of ham radio started to die out in the mid 80's when PCs started to
hit the scene. Radio may have been the focus of future EE's interests 40
years ago, but kids I grew up with were making breadboards for their
Apple ]['s.


Hate, Hate, Hate.


My operating time is minimal these days (too many other obligations), but I
try to get online at least one Saturday or Sunday a month. I simply do not
run across these same people that you do. I have many pleasant conversations
with both young (and new) hams around the country.


I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.


I did not submit any comments on this licensing change, because, frankly,
amateur radio is such a small part of my life these days that I could be
bothered (didn't even realize. Had I made comments, I would have reiterated
the comments I made in my 2000 NRPM filing, which called for 2 license
classes -- a class a and class b license, one for privs above 30mhz and one
for privs below.

It was my opinion in 2000, as it still is today, that the theory
examinations should test actual knowledge, and not rote memorization skills.
I supported the removal of element 1a in 2000, and I would support it again
today -- as long as their is a corresponding upgrade of the theory question
pools.


It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.


None of the EE/CS students I work with are interested in ham radio at all.
The radio interests they have tend to focus in the consumer fields (like
cell phones) rather than, say, Marine HF or EPIRB systems. Radio simply
isn't "sexy" any longer.





Dave Heil December 24th 06 05:04 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
KH6HZ wrote:
"Mike Coslo" wrote:


No, radio. Radio was the "tech" of the '50s. Today, that "tech" takes other
forms: computers, cell phones, etc.


There is no one who has "cellular phones" as a hobby. There is no
tinkering with them. There is no making them work in a way other than
the way they work. There is no equivalent of DXing, no equivalent of
contesting. One can rag chew all day--at a price. A cellular phone is
not the equvalent of amateur radio. Neither is the internet.


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.


What draws people to amateur radio? The technical aspect, or the utility
aspect?


The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest
in DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and
operating a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in
touch with local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

It is my opinion that over the past 2 decades, the utility aspect of ham
radio has been the main drawing point, not the tech aspect. I think the tech
aspect of ham radio started to die out in the mid 80's when PCs started to
hit the scene. Radio may have been the focus of future EE's interests 40
years ago, but kids I grew up with were making breadboards for their
Apple ]['s.


I like 160 meter operation. I enjoy working my DX the hard way.
Installing efficient transmitting antennas and experimenting with
various receive antennas interest me. I enjoy weak signal VHF and UHF
operation. Some of the other locals have different ideas. K8JRG enjoys
fast scan television. W8MSD and KC8FZH enjoy tweaking their linked 440
repeaters. WD8MTN enjoys DC-to-daylight mobile operation. K8LQM likes
to rag chew with CW on 40m. KC8FZM uses 6m to control his model
aircraft. KA8YEZ is heavily involved in public service work.
Each fellow has his niche and yet is involved to a lesser degree with
other aspects of amateur radio.


It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.


None of the EE/CS students I work with are interested in ham radio at all.
The radio interests they have tend to focus in the consumer fields (like
cell phones) rather than, say, Marine HF or EPIRB systems. Radio simply
isn't "sexy" any longer.


A cellular phone is a two-way radio. Don't tell those EE students or
they'll all throw theirs away after discovering that they are un-sexy.

Dave K8MN

Not Roger December 24th 06 08:27 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

"Dave Heil" wrote in message
ink.net...
KH6HZ wrote:
"Mike Coslo" wrote:


No, radio. Radio was the "tech" of the '50s. Today, that "tech" takes

other
forms: computers, cell phones, etc.


There is no one who has "cellular phones" as a hobby. There is no
tinkering with them. There is no making them work in a way other than
the way they work. There is no equivalent of DXing, no equivalent of
contesting. One can rag chew all day--at a price. A cellular phone is
not the equvalent of amateur radio. Neither is the internet.


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.


What draws people to amateur radio? The technical aspect, or the utility
aspect?


The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest
in DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and
operating a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in
touch with local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

It is my opinion that over the past 2 decades, the utility aspect of ham
radio has been the main drawing point, not the tech aspect. I think the

tech
aspect of ham radio started to die out in the mid 80's when PCs started

to
hit the scene. Radio may have been the focus of future EE's interests 40
years ago, but kids I grew up with were making breadboards for their
Apple ]['s.


I like 160 meter operation. I enjoy working my DX the hard way.
Installing efficient transmitting antennas and experimenting with
various receive antennas interest me. I enjoy weak signal VHF and UHF
operation. Some of the other locals have different ideas. K8JRG enjoys
fast scan television. W8MSD and KC8FZH enjoy tweaking their linked 440
repeaters. WD8MTN enjoys DC-to-daylight mobile operation. K8LQM likes
to rag chew with CW on 40m. KC8FZM uses 6m to control his model
aircraft. KA8YEZ is heavily involved in public service work.
Each fellow has his niche and yet is involved to a lesser degree with
other aspects of amateur radio.


It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.


None of the EE/CS students I work with are interested in ham radio at

all.
The radio interests they have tend to focus in the consumer fields (like
cell phones) rather than, say, Marine HF or EPIRB systems. Radio simply
isn't "sexy" any longer.


A cellular phone is a two-way radio. Don't tell those EE students or
they'll all throw theirs away after discovering that they are un-sexy.

Dave K8MN


But, Dave. The kiddies using cell phones think that text messaging is all
the hoot these days! Hams have been doing text messaging (CW) for decades.
Cell phones? They can arguably be called modern day two way radios that have
their roots in the precursors of Ham Radio auto patch systems of 30 or more
years ago. Same concept, but with different frequencies and digital
enhancements.
I am old enough to remember way back when my buddy set up an auto patch on
his repeater system. The phone company was even then rattling the ears of
Govt. regulators by arguing that Hams were making phone calls, "free" phone
calls, and not paying the Piper..the Piper being Ma Bell.

Who needs "sexy"? Amateur Radio is a hobby that one takes to for the sheer
enjoyment of same. Besides, when our cell towers go belly up due to power
outages or simple overloads, I can easily switch over to my Marine batteries
and carry on, uninterrupted, for weeks if need be.

dit dit dit dah...








KH6HZ December 24th 06 01:58 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
"Dave Heil" wrote:

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest in
DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and operating
a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in touch with
local buddies who are also radio amateurs?


None of this draws people to ham radio these days (in large numbers, I'm
sure there are always exceptions and there are some people who join the
amateur ranks for the reasons you list.) In reality I do not disagree with
anything you have posted in your followup message.

All one has to do is view the licensing stats at Speroni's site to see the
future of ham radio.

Amateur radio licensees peaked in 04/03 at 687,860 -- exactly 12 years (10
years + 2 years grace period) after the introduction of the Tech license,
which illustrates all the no-code Tech license did for ham radio was stall
the inevitable negative slope in licensing statistics we see today.

In the past 43 months, Amateur radio has lost 31,000 licensees. In the 43
months preceeding that high point, Amateur Radio added 11,919. Thus, we are
losing amateurs at 2.5 times the rate we added them in just the same period
before.


I do not believe that elimination of the code test will reverse this trend,
because:

a) I do not believe the code test represented a significant barrier to entry
for many people (post 2000) looking for HF privileges. At 5WPM the cost test
did little more than to test the applicant's ability to rote memorize a
table of dits and dahs, and perform a mental table lookup. For this reason,
I do not feel there is this huge untapped reservior of people waiting in the
wings to get a ham license, as there were when the code test was eliminated
for VHF. I'm sure there are *some* people, I simply do not feel it is a
statistically significant amount.

b) I do not feel the "problem" with ham radio is the code test, or geezer
operators bitchin' on the air about non-coded operators. For reasons that
clearly we can debate for eons, the younger generations that I work and
interact with on a daily basis simply are not interested in ham radio the
way folks 20+ years ago were. My 8 and 12 year olds would rather play XBOX
than sit around learning radio theory. EE/CS students I work with are
thinking "consumer electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".


We can get together in 2010 and see if there were any meaningful bump in
license stats as a result of this change. I'm sticking with my original
predictions in my original reply to Steve's posting :)

73
KH6HZ



Dee Flint December 24th 06 03:29 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

"Mike Coslo" wrote in message
6...
"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"K4YZ" wrote:


[snip]

Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease.


If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I agree with you, Mike, on this one. I've taught classes for the Extra
class license. Many of the students came in with no technical background
other than what they had learned in studying for their Tech & General
licenses. It took a lot of study on their part to get the material.
Teaching vectors to people who have had no math higher than basic algebra
was quite a challenge.

As far as those who may have just "memorized the question pools" instead of
learning the material, memorizing 800+ questions for the Extra is still
quite a challenge. Add the 400+ in the Tech pool and the 400+ in the
General pool and that is an awful lot of questions to memorize.


I do not believe there is
this huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join
the amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o
a code test.


I'm agreed with you there.


I too believe that there is no such reservoir. When they see my antennas on
my car, they ask out of curiosity but when I tell them what it is for, they
often say "what's ham radio?" I explain a bit about ham radio to try to
pique their interest but so far no luck. They do not express any interest in
pursuing this hobby.

[snip]



Amateur radio is a dead hobby.


No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


Definitely not dead or dying. We've simply peaked (and actually overshot
due to the honeydo hams, etc). It will decline for a while and then
stabilize. I saw some statistics somewhere on the web that supports this
idea. If we exclude Japan (which licenses a large number of school children
in science classes who then don't continue), we have the highest percentage
of hams in the population. Most countires have approximately 1 ham per
thousand people. We have just over 2 hams per thousand people.

It's nowhere near the time to start the funeral service. If each of us
active hams as individuals manage to recruit one ham in our lifetime who
stays active, we will hold steady as far as active hams go. Note that I
specify active since as many as half our current ham population may be
inactive for one reason or another. If we recruit more than one each,
amateur radio will resume growth after flushing out the inactives.

[snip]
Now if ya really want to know what I think is the pressing problem,
and the biggest threat to the future of Ham radio, I'll tell you.

Tune across 75/80 meters in the evening. Plenty of good, code
tested (I'm assuming) amateurs who seem to have enough anger stored in
their gullet to increase the blood pressure of ten normal people. They
are mad at people like myself who are nickle Extras, they are mad at the
new "crop of CB'ers" who are coming along since the FCC caved into the
the forces of evil and eliminated Element 1. Hate, Hate, Hate. Frankly
they sound a lot more like CB'ers than they know. Sorry, but a tune
across 80 meters, and a lot of 20 meters puts the lie to how Morse
testing keeps up the neighborhood. The question to ask is would you want
your kids hanging out with these folk?

I firmly believe that the biggest threat to Amateur Radio at this
time is the grouchy, grumpy Hams that turn every conversation into
bitching about the great unwashed are destroying the hobby. Making sure
that the new guys and gals feel perfectly unwelcome. Especially
endearing is that many of them lack the social graces to avoid telling
the newbies to their face about their hatred for them. First class folk,
eh? It didn't bother me too much, but I have a mostly tough hide. But it
does scare away a lot of folk.


This is one of several elements that could be a danger to amateur radio.
There were and are a few of the codeless advocates that expressed open
contempt for people who did not share their view. If that is carried into
operation on the ham bands, that too will damage amateur radio. I will
welcome all who are good people with good manners but I will not interact
with those who treat me with disrespect. The respectful people, I will
encourage them to keep active and help them learn that there are times when
the bands are bad and the bands will improve. I'll help them learn how to
use their equipment, etc. The disrepectful will have to fend for
themselves. If they become respectful, I will then help them.

I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.

It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

What are you (collectivley speaking) going to do - help - or just
make it as unpleasant for the new folk as possible?

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -


Personally I will give everyone whatever help they need unless they
repeatedly act in a disrespectful manner (afterall anyone can slip
occasionally). I will continue to invite new ops over to my shack and
mentor them. I'll continue to encourage new hams to join a club in their
area. If that club is not a good match, I'll encourage them to try other
clubs. I'll continue to encourage them to participate in club activities
(service activities, Field Day, etc). I'll continue to teach classes and
continue to be a VE.

Dee, N8UZE



Dee Flint December 24th 06 03:38 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Mike Coslo" wrote:

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.


None of the area colleges do it -- that is, give instant credit because
you have a ham license. Like I previously stated, though, I believe some
(if not most) would allow you to petition for credit on the basis of 'life
experience', and you probably would have a relative degree of success.


If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I doubt if you take anyone off the street at random they could pass any
element test. However, study materials are easily obtained and, IMO,
virtually anyone can pass with a minimal amount of effort put into
studying them.


I disagree. I've taught classes where the students had no math background
beyond basic high school math and they also had very limited ham experience.
They had to work very hard to get the material, especially the Extra class
material.

Even if they just chose to memorize the questions, it isn't easy to memorize
400+ questions for Tech, 400+ questions for General and 800+ questions for
Extra.


That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.


No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


In the mid 90's when I routinely posted to this newsgroup, I made many
observations that I felt the number of licensed hams was being artifically
increased due to the extension of the licensing term from 5 to 10 years.
Likewise, I made comments regarding the attrition rate of licensees
resulting from the Tech license.

Starting in early '03, almost 12 years to the month the Tech license came
on the scene (10 year license term + 2 year grace period), the number of
licensed hams has steadily declined. This negative slope has continued,
relatively unabated, for the past 3 years. I do not expect it to reverse
the trend ever again. The best that may happen is there may be some form
of equilibrum achieved where the number of licensed hams remains constant
+/- a few thousand as expirations and new licensees fluctuate.


The Tech license existed before that. I believe that you are actually
referring to when the codeless Technician license was created. Compared to
the total number of licensees at this time, it's a pretty shallow slope. It
could potentially stop declining in about 2010 or perhaps a year or two
later. That will pretty much have flushed out the cell phone hams since
2000 to 2002 is about when cell phones really started becoming common and
relatively affordable.

Dee, N8UZE



Mike Coslo December 24th 06 05:39 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"Dave Heil" wrote:

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved?
The thought of being active in public service communications? The
interest in DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able
to modify commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up
and operating a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay
in touch with local buddies who are also radio amateurs?


None of this draws people to ham radio these days (in large numbers,
I'm sure there are always exceptions and there are some people who
join the amateur ranks for the reasons you list.) In reality I do not
disagree with anything you have posted in your followup message.



I'm not sure exactly why large numbers of people would be drawn to
Amateur radio ever!


All one has to do is view the licensing stats at Speroni's site to see
the future of ham radio.


Those stats are very skewed at the moment

Amateur radio licensees peaked in 04/03 at 687,860 -- exactly 12 years
(10 years + 2 years grace period) after the introduction of the Tech
license, which illustrates all the no-code Tech license did for ham
radio was stall the inevitable negative slope in licensing statistics
we see today.


And so many of those Technicians had not been active in Amateur
Radio after cell phones took over for local communiations. Another group
left after the magnificent treatment that they reveived from the
"superior" Hams.



In the past 43 months, Amateur radio has lost 31,000 licensees. In the
43 months preceeding that high point, Amateur Radio added 11,919.
Thus, we are losing amateurs at 2.5 times the rate we added them in
just the same period before.




I do not believe that elimination of the code test will reverse this
trend, because:

a) I do not believe the code test represented a significant barrier to
entry for many people (post 2000) looking for HF privileges. At 5WPM
the cost test did little more than to test the applicant's ability to
rote memorize a table of dits and dahs, and perform a mental table
lookup. For this reason, I do not feel there is this huge untapped
reservior of people waiting in the wings to get a ham license, as
there were when the code test was eliminated for VHF. I'm sure there
are *some* people, I simply do not feel it is a statistically
significant amount.


I have issues with maintaining my weight, yet my wife remains as
slender as the day we met. She has difficulty understanding how some
people cannot control their eating.

I was a 3 pack a day smoker, and in 1977, I decided to quit cold
turkey. She continues ot smoke, and apparently it is impossible for her
to quit.

My point is just because it is such a simple matter for some people
to learn Morse code, it does not mean that others will find it so
simple.

One of the most amusing things about those who would have Morse
code testing as the metric of an Amateur's worth, (of course, testing at
above 5 WPM) is the dichotomy of learning the code was apparently easy
for them. I see that all the time.

If learning Morse code is easy, then how does it become the metric of an
Amateurs Worthyness?

And at what point is it the measurment ofhow good a Ham is? 5 WPM?
7 WPM? 20 WPM?

There are apparently some superhuman young people in Europe that
can do better than 150 WPM! Nww those must be Uberhams! 8^)


b) I do not feel the "problem" with ham radio is the code test, or
geezer operators bitchin' on the air about non-coded operators.


I do. If I had a person in the shack to demonstrate the ARS to
them, I would never ever put 75 meters on.

For
reasons that clearly we can debate for eons, the younger generations
that I work and interact with on a daily basis simply are not
interested in ham radio the way folks 20+ years ago were. My 8 and 12
year olds would rather play XBOX than sit around learning radio
theory. EE/CS students I work with are thinking "consumer
electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".


And I know quite a few EE students who *are* interested in RF, and
have gotten the Tech license. Many have gone on to advanced license
classes.


- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

robert casey December 24th 06 08:46 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

My 8 and 12 year olds would rather play XBOX
than sit around learning radio theory. EE/CS students I work with are
thinking "consumer electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".



Someone ought to create an Xbox game that simulates a contest using CW
on HF... Use the controller as a code key, and the game software
creates pile-ups. One of the options of the game would be to select
yourself as the rare DX, and deal with working with everyone in the
pile-up.... And you don't have to fight with the condo board or HOA
over antennas... :-)

robert casey December 24th 06 08:54 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

Teaching vectors to people who have had no math higher than basic algebra
was quite a challenge.


I can remember the first time vectors and such came up in math class. I
got hung up with the names they gave numbers that had "i (square root of
-1)" in them. "imaginary". To me "imaginary" = "fake", so why would
you talk about fake numbers in a math class? If this was English Lit
class, then sure, anything goes there, but not in math class....
You'll probably run into things like this, and have no idea what the
problem is when you do the teaching.

Dee Flint December 24th 06 10:06 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

"robert casey" wrote in message
nk.net...

Teaching vectors to people who have had no math higher than basic algebra
was quite a challenge.


I can remember the first time vectors and such came up in math class. I
got hung up with the names they gave numbers that had "i (square root
of -1)" in them. "imaginary". To me "imaginary" = "fake", so why would
you talk about fake numbers in a math class? If this was English Lit
class, then sure, anything goes there, but not in math class.... You'll
probably run into things like this, and have no idea what the problem is
when you do the teaching.


Actually wasn't too hard. I told them that mathematicians needed "imaginary
playmates"!

From the practical point of view, I simply showed them how to work the
problems with "triangles". The real number was the horizontal and the
imaginary the vertical. This cuts it down to something they have seen
before even if a long time ago. No sweat.

Dee, N8UZE



[email protected] December 25th 06 12:46 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

KH6HZ wrote:
"Mike Coslo" wrote:

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.


None of the area colleges do it -- that is, give instant credit because you
have a ham license. Like I previously stated, though, I believe some (if not
most) would allow you to petition for credit on the basis of 'life
experience', and you probably would have a relative degree of success.


You can bypass many entry level courses with the CLEP exams.

For the higher level classes, most universities allow you to challenge
a course. That is, you pay the fee and take the exams. The profs
usually crap themselves because they don't know what is in their
college catalogs, and they are unprepared to administer a mid-term and
a final at the drop of a hat. But it's fun to do - providing you
actually have the so called "life experience."


John Smith December 25th 06 02:40 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
robert casey wrote:

Teaching vectors to people who have had no math higher than basic
algebra was quite a challenge.


I can remember the first time vectors and such came up in math class. I
got hung up with the names they gave numbers that had "i (square root of
-1)" in them. "imaginary". To me "imaginary" = "fake", so why would
you talk about fake numbers in a math class? If this was English Lit
class, then sure, anything goes there, but not in math class.... You'll
probably run into things like this, and have no idea what the problem is
when you do the teaching.


-1 is quite real, it is the square root of it that sets off those
imaginations. Especially, when one views fractals and one imagines that
nature makes use of it's sq. root rather nicely ...

Regards,
JS

KØHB December 25th 06 04:20 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

"Mike Coslo" wrote in message
6...
"KH6HZ" wrote in



Amateur radio is a dead hobby.


No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


I believe that the last generation of hams in the USA has already been born, and
it has nothing to do with how fast they can send beeps.

Radio is no longer magic to young people, and magic is what made it worth the
effort.

73, de Hans, K0HB
Past Grand Master Magician




Dee Flint December 25th 06 05:14 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

"KØHB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Mike Coslo" wrote in message
6...
"KH6HZ" wrote in



Amateur radio is a dead hobby.


No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


I believe that the last generation of hams in the USA has already been
born, and it has nothing to do with how fast they can send beeps.

Radio is no longer magic to young people, and magic is what made it worth
the effort.

73, de Hans, K0HB
Past Grand Master Magician


I think you've hit the nail on the head.

Dee, N8UZE



U-Know-Who December 25th 06 05:55 AM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 

wrote in message
...
On Mon, 25 Dec 2006 00:14:05 -0500, "Dee Flint"
wrote:


"KØHB" wrote in message
hlink.net...

"Mike Coslo" wrote in message
6...
"KH6HZ" wrote in


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank
is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


I believe that the last generation of hams in the USA has already been
born, and it has nothing to do with how fast they can send beeps.

Radio is no longer magic to young people, and magic is what made it
worth
the effort.

73, de Hans, K0HB
Past Grand Master Magician


I think you've hit the nail on the head.

well you 2 have certainly shown why Ham radio is trouble it it lacks
ambassodor with with hope and sprit


You are an idiot, Mark. Hans is correct, and Dee merely agreed.



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[email protected] December 25th 06 02:38 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 


There will be Codesters hiding in the hills and taking potshots at the
"enemy" for years to come. Only the actuarial tables will sort it all
out.


M Peraaho December 25th 06 03:13 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct. There will always be a few new people, but if there is not
sufficient mass to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will
either go out of business or build other things people want to buy.
Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio. Young people today have cell phones, computers,
the internet. They have absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate
with friends around the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint
dry. CW would put them to sleep. Look around you, how many young people are
hams? If not around 600,000 young hams, ham radio is history because in
around 10-20 years most existing hams will be at room temperature.



KH6HZ December 25th 06 04:50 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
"M Peraaho" wrote in message
...

How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct.


Since the FCC licensing system does not include DOB, it is hard to say for
sure (and I'm not sure if you could cross reference the amateur database
with, say, the ULS/FRB databases, which I do not recall if they contain DOB
info anyway.)

So, I would say, the only thing we have to go on is anecdotal evidence. My
observations have been that the No-Code Tech license brought in a lot of
"younger" hams, but even so, these hams were in their 30's and 40's. Almost
all of the newer hams in our local club tend to be codeless techs, some move
to HF, others do not. At field day these days, I rarely see anyone under the
age of 30, unless its a family member of another participant.

I would say that most HF operators tend to be older, because, mainly, it
helps to own your own home to set up a decent HF station. You (usually)
can't string an 80m dipole, install a tower, etc. on your landlord's
property. Not to mention PO your downstairs neighbor when you start coming
thru their TV set. Simple economics prevale: older men are more established,
tend to own their own homes, etc.


There will always be a few new people, but if there is not sufficient mass
to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will either go out of
business or build other things people want to buy.


Keep in mind manufacturers address other market segments too, so it is
unlikely they will go out of business, although they may stop offering
amateur-related gear at some point where it becomes economically unfeasible
to at least recoup their R&D, plant, and manufacturing expenses. Plus they
build gear not only for US amateurs but other countries as well.


Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio.


Someone else can comment on this, I do not follow the spectrum allocation
wars. Since most consumer-oriented spectrum is on the higher frequency
bands, I would guess the demand for spectrum 2m would be minimal. Can't
say that for sure though, that's just a "gut feeling" on my part, and
someone who is more "up" on spectrum demands could post for sure.


Young people today have cell phones, computers, the internet. They have
absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate with friends around
the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint dry. CW would put
them to sleep.


As I've stated in my previous postings, I do not think that CW (in the form
of the Element 1A licensing requirement) has been a serious deterrent to a
statistically significant amount of people over the past 6 years.

If you look at licensing statistics from Speroni's site.

The (no-code) Tech license was introduced in 92. For roughly 5 years, we saw
an upshoot in licensees, until 97, where things started to taper off again.
The "pool" of new people started to taper off, and we were unable to
maintain the growth. For roughly a year, licenses hovered around 674k.

Elements 1b and 1c were eliminated in 2000. Again, we saw an uptick in new
licensees, until April 03 -- roughly 12 years to the month that the Codeless
Tech license was introduced. I do not believe in coincidences -- 12 years
(10 years + 2 year grace period) -- and I believe these stats would suggest
that the Tech license simply delayed the inevitable downturn in licensees we
would have seen earlier.

From 2000 until April 03, we added 11k new licensees. Then the downward
slope has started, and over the past 40 months we have lost 32k licensees.

It is my belief that most people who were interested in HF operation, but
were turned off because of the code test, already got licensed in the
2000-2003 timeframe. Yes, there are *some* people who cannot pass a 5wpm
code test. However, these people are few and far between.

A 5wpm code test requires little more than rote memorization of a table, and
then a mental table-lookup during the testing. This is dramatically
different from the 13 and 20wpm code tests, where you have to "hear" entire
letters or words even, in order to have a QSO. (A good friend of mine copies
CW at close to 30wpm, and can have a conversation with me in his shack at
the same time, while listening to the other operator in the background. When
I asked him how he did it, he told me he hears whole 'words', and his
subconcious copies the conversation while he can focus on other things.
That's a "skill" it takes a very long time to develop. Oh, BTW, he's 38, and
has been licensed since he was a teenager.)


Look around you, how many young people are hams? If not around 600,000
young hams, ham radio is history because in around 10-20 years most
existing hams will be at room temperature.


Many hobbies have become passee over the years, and I believe ham radio is
eventually going to become one of them. Not many folks play horseshoes
today, for instance. The death of ham radio is neither good nor bad, it
simply "is". I suspect ham radio will be around for quite a few years to
come... certainly, it will not go away in my lifetime (assuming I live to
the average age of 72, that would be 30 years from now). Amateur Radio will
not die with a bang. It will die with a wimper, and slowly fade away over
time.

73
KH6HZ



RST Engineering December 25th 06 05:27 PM

The "Code Wars"...It's Done...Now Where?
 
Hans, I respectfully disagree. What we PERCEIVE to be the focus of ham
radio will shift ... calling CQ for hours on end while I could get into a
chat room in seconds and achieve the same result will go away. The HF bands
will slowly dwindle as waiting for the sunspot cycle to rev up fast loses
its charm when I can pick up a cellphone and have digital clear
communications any time of the day or night.

So we refocus on what DOES fire kids' rockets. Making robots and running
them with digitally coded RF. Setting up the house so you can turn on
lights and appliances with DTMF. Talking to astronauts in space. Satellite
communications.

Perhaps the brain trust in Newington is woefully late in calling a summit
meeting of the brethren and sistren to sort this all out. Perhaps Wayne
Greene was right after all, that the ARRL has long since outlived its
usefulness, and the structure set up by Maxim is in the final stages of
crumbling away. Perhaps lots of things.

But amateur radio (and perhaps we need a new term for THAT, too) will live
on, at least in the generation that I am teaching, but only with a totally
new focus and dedication.

Jim





"KØHB" wrote in message
ink.net...





I believe that the last generation of hams in the USA has already been
born, and it has nothing to do with how fast they can send beeps.

Radio is no longer magic to young people, and magic is what made it worth
the effort.

73, de Hans, K0HB
Past Grand Master Magician






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