From Morkie's Blog:

QUOTE

a rejoiner to "now you are HF active"

first I thank the author for his thought wether or I not I agree with
you I do respect.
OTOH I simply feel you and others have failed to understand what you
were up against in the Code test fight which I don't consider quite
over yet, anymore than "mission acomlished" was the end of the Iraq
war.

UNQUOTE

Oh, we (the pro-code camp) KNEW what we were up against...Mostly
the overwhelming attitude of a voiciferous "gimmegimmegimme" generation
that would never be satisfied until they could get "something for
nothing" or as close to nothing as possible.

The written tests have been gutted for years. Colleges that used
to allow extra-curricular credit for possessing an Amateur License no
long do it since the questions are public domain and therefore negates
any evidence that the holder really "knows" anything about radio.

Now the one and only "skill" test is gone too.

There is an overwhelming "give me more for less" mindset these
days, and indeed Amateur Radio is an minute part of that mindset, but
it's here and it's done.

Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from now. I
for one will be watching with bated breath to see if this in-rush of
new operators shows up. I say "it ain't a hap'nin thing"

As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's going to be
an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs to HF licenses. There
will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

Any Takers?

Steve, K4YZ

K4YZ wrote:
From Morkie's Blog:

QUOTE

a rejoiner to "now you are HF active"

first I thank the author for his thought wether or I not I agree with
you I do respect.
OTOH I simply feel you and others have failed to understand what you
were up against in the Code test fight which I don't consider quite
over yet, anymore than "mission acomlished" was the end of the Iraq
war.

UNQUOTE

Oh, we (the pro-code camp) KNEW what we were up against...Mostly
the overwhelming attitude of a voiciferous "gimmegimmegimme" generation
that would never be satisfied until they could get "something for
nothing" or as close to nothing as possible.

The written tests have been gutted for years. Colleges that used
to allow extra-curricular credit for possessing an Amateur License no
long do it since the questions are public domain and therefore negates
any evidence that the holder really "knows" anything about radio.

Now the one and only "skill" test is gone too.

There is an overwhelming "give me more for less" mindset these
days, and indeed Amateur Radio is an minute part of that mindset, but
it's here and it's done.

Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from now. I
for one will be watching with bated breath to see if this in-rush of
new operators shows up. I say "it ain't a hap'nin thing"

As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's going to be
an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs to HF licenses. There
will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

Any Takers?

Steve, K4YZ

Two no-coders were talking on a remote repeater. They were planning on
doing in, or what sounded like they were going to hurt someone. They
quite clearly were discussing killing a guy. They said they were gonna
go someplace called eleven and shoot skip. Not knowing who 'skip' was, I
prayed for his safety.

On one of those rare occasions that I actually talked to a no-coder on
2-meters, I was on 146.52 simplex. The conversation was going well till
out of no where the familiar flash of ignorance reared it's head again.
The No-Coder was really proud of the fact that my signal was as strong
on the reverse as it was on 52. Where do these people come from ?

Another No-Code funny. During a recent weather net, an OLD guy but a
no-coder no less checked into the net as a mobile enroute to spotting
location. A few minutes later, he notified net control that he was
*destinated. Net control asked for his QTH. The No-Coder responded, The
drive thru at McDonalds.

What's with all the no-coders and vanity calls. Do these idiots actually
think people will think their old timers? Guess again. The minute they
open their mouth the cat will be out of the bag. Real ham's won't ask
you what your First Personal is.

"K4YZ" wrote:

The written tests have been gutted for years.

Colleges that used to allow extra-curricular credit for
possessing an Amateur License no long do it

To be fair, I do not know of any college that has done this since well
before I attended undergraduate school in the early 80's. I believe that in
some cases you could (successfully) petition a school for credit under the
guise of "real life experience" being a "replacement" for required class
work. However, as a rule of thumb I do not believe having an amateur license
has given you any college credit at a mainstream university since the mid
70's, if not before that.


Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from
now. I for one will be watching with bated breath to see
if this in-rush of new operators shows up. I say "it ain't
a hap'nin thing"

I agree, but for reasons I will outline below.


As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's
going to be an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs
to HF licenses.

I agree with the Tech upgrade aspect of your comment. If you look at ham
radio statistics on Speroni's web site, you can see that since the
restructuring that occurred in 2000, there has been a continual uptick in
"extra" class licenses and a steady decrease in other license classes.

(The only exception to this is the Tech license, which, as the de-facto
'entry level' license, is logically going to see the most growth. It is the
first license most people obtain, and its the only license you can get w/o
the "hurdle" of the code test. Thus, the Tech license is the 30mhz
equivalent of the Extra-class license, in the sense that w/o element 1a it
was the license class you "topped out" at.)

The reason for trend simple: There is no compelling reason for an "active"
licensee *not* to upgrade to the highest grade available. The major
stumbling block for most amateurs -- the component which required the most
work to pass -- has always been the code test. Once a licensee overcomes the
hurdle of the 5wpm code test, the additional tests to upgrade to Extra are
minimal. After all, the existing theory examinations do not actually test
radio knowledge, they test your ability to rote memorize the question pool.
I daresay that

With the removal of element 1a, there is no reason for many of the current
Tech licenses to take, and pass, the theory examinations to obtain HF
privileges.

I think there will be a noticable decline in Tech licenses, and an increase
in General and Extra class tickets, as those folks migrate into HF
privileges.

I also think the amount will be less than you expect. I think the migration
will be measurable, but overall a lot less than most people expect. Much for
the same reason why the decrease in the General license has been steady, but
minimal each month. Many people are satisfied with the operating privileges
they have, and they have no need to upgrade further. Those Techs who have no
intention of working HF will more than likely remain Techs.



will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I disagree with this assessment entirely. I believe the uptick in "new"
licenses as the result of this change will be statistically insignificant.
Total licenses have been decreasing steadily since April 03. This latest
change will not change that trend.

Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease. I do not believe there is this
huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join the
amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o a code
test.

Oh, I'm sure someone will pop in with the inevitable "I have a friend who
(insert story here) and will only become an amateur once the code test is
removed because his interests lay on HF".

I'm sure there *ARE* some of those people. Are there a lot of them? I
seriously doubt it. So, I think the net result of this change will be a
measureable albeit minor bump in new licenses, if any noticable difference
at all. Almost all these folks will obtain a Tech license and then
immediately migrate into a General or Extra-class license.



I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

For a few months, you *may* see a higher-than-average rate of increase in
those license classes, but I wouldn't even give it 12 months -- I would say
within 3 to 6 months, any influx of "new blood" will be minimal.

Within that same time period I do not think you will see a reversal of the
trend in a decreasing number of licensed amateurs. The overall rate of
decline may slow, but I do not expect this change to reverse the negative
slope.

Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

My children are 17, 12, and 8. None of them express any type of interest
whatsoever in ham radio. Computers, cell phones, text-messaging -- all
staples of the modern world. 50 years ago, radio was a common staple of
every household, and naturally, a source of education.

Today, my kids are interested in C# programming, not how the radio works.

The cell phone killed the utility of radio.

Talk around the world on a radio? Why do I need to spend $2000 on a decent
HF setup when I can turn on my $500 dell and do the same thing?



Overall, Steve, I think some of your observations are dead-on, while others
are misguided. Only time will tell, naturally.

73
KH6HZ

"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"K4YZ" wrote:

The written tests have been gutted for years.

Colleges that used to allow extra-curricular credit for
possessing an Amateur License no long do it

To be fair, I do not know of any college that has done this since well
before I attended undergraduate school in the early 80's. I believe
that in some cases you could (successfully) petition a school for
credit under the guise of "real life experience" being a "replacement"
for required class work. However, as a rule of thumb I do not believe
having an amateur license has given you any college credit at a
mainstream university since the mid 70's, if not before that.

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.




Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from
now. I for one will be watching with bated breath to see
if this in-rush of new operators shows up. I say "it ain't
a hap'nin thing"

I agree, but for reasons I will outline below.


As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's
going to be an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs
to HF licenses.

I agree with the Tech upgrade aspect of your comment. If you look at
ham radio statistics on Speroni's web site, you can see that since the
restructuring that occurred in 2000, there has been a continual uptick
in "extra" class licenses and a steady decrease in other license
classes.

(The only exception to this is the Tech license, which, as the
de-facto 'entry level' license, is logically going to see the most
growth. It is the first license most people obtain, and its the only
license you can get w/o the "hurdle" of the code test. Thus, the Tech
license is the 30mhz equivalent of the Extra-class license, in the
sense that w/o element 1a it was the license class you "topped out"
at.)

The reason for trend simple: There is no compelling reason for an
"active" licensee *not* to upgrade to the highest grade available. The
major stumbling block for most amateurs -- the component which
required the most work to pass -- has always been the code test. Once
a licensee overcomes the hurdle of the 5wpm code test, the additional
tests to upgrade to Extra are minimal. After all, the existing theory
examinations do not actually test radio knowledge, they test your
ability to rote memorize the question pool. I daresay that

With the removal of element 1a, there is no reason for many of the
current Tech licenses to take, and pass, the theory examinations to
obtain HF privileges.

I think there will be a noticable decline in Tech licenses, and an
increase in General and Extra class tickets, as those folks migrate
into HF privileges.

I also think the amount will be less than you expect. I think the
migration will be measurable, but overall a lot less than most people
expect. Much for the same reason why the decrease in the General
license has been steady, but minimal each month. Many people are
satisfied with the operating privileges they have, and they have no
need to upgrade further. Those Techs who have no intention of working
HF will more than likely remain Techs.



will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next
12 months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I disagree with this assessment entirely. I believe the uptick in
"new" licenses as the result of this change will be statistically
insignificant. Total licenses have been decreasing steadily since
April 03. This latest change will not change that trend.

Those licenses - by and large - are the "Honeydo" Hams. These
people picked up the Technician license and communicated with the XYL or
OM to tell them to stop on the way home and get bred.... Opps! make that
bread.


Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease.

If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I do not believe there is
this huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join
the amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o
a code test.

I'm agreed with you there.

Oh, I'm sure someone will pop in with the inevitable "I have a friend
who (insert story here) and will only become an amateur once the code
test is removed because his interests lay on HF".

Then they have cheated themselves out of many years of enjoyment.
Their loss.


I'm sure there *ARE* some of those people. Are there a lot of them? I
seriously doubt it. So, I think the net result of this change will be
a measureable albeit minor bump in new licenses, if any noticable
difference at all. Almost all these folks will obtain a Tech license
and then immediately migrate into a General or Extra-class license.



I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't
have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

For a few months, you *may* see a higher-than-average rate of increase
in those license classes, but I wouldn't even give it 12 months -- I
would say within 3 to 6 months, any influx of "new blood" will be
minimal.
Within that same time period I do not think you will see a reversal of
the trend in a decreasing number of licensed amateurs. The overall
rate of decline may slow, but I do not expect this change to reverse
the negative slope.

That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.



My children are 17, 12, and 8. None of them express any type of
interest whatsoever in ham radio. Computers, cell phones,
text-messaging -- all staples of the modern world. 50 years ago, radio
was a common staple of every household, and naturally, a source of
education.

Ham radio was a common staple in the household 50 years ago?


Today, my kids are interested in C# programming, not how the radio
works.

Okay, my son is interested in programming also. His lack of
interest in radio has nothing to do with Cell phones, text messaging, or
the internet.

The cell phone killed the utility of radio.

Especially for those Honeydo Hams. But then again, they weren't
interested in radio anyhow - just what it could do for them. And Cell
phones indeed did what they needed, and did it better.


Talk around the world on a radio? Why do I need to spend $2000 on a
decent HF setup when I can turn on my $500 dell and do the same thing?

If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.

Now if ya really want to know what I think is the pressing problem,
and the biggest threat to the future of Ham radio, I'll tell you.

Tune across 75/80 meters in the evening. Plenty of good, code
tested (I'm assuming) amateurs who seem to have enough anger stored in
their gullet to increase the blood pressure of ten normal people. They
are mad at people like myself who are nickle Extras, they are mad at the
new "crop of CB'ers" who are coming along since the FCC caved into the
the forces of evil and eliminated Element 1. Hate, Hate, Hate. Frankly
they sound a lot more like CB'ers than they know. Sorry, but a tune
across 80 meters, and a lot of 20 meters puts the lie to how Morse
testing keeps up the neighborhood. The question to ask is would you want
your kids hanging out with these folk?

I firmly believe that the biggest threat to Amateur Radio at this
time is the grouchy, grumpy Hams that turn every conversation into
bitching about the great unwashed are destroying the hobby. Making sure
that the new guys and gals feel perfectly unwelcome. Especially
endearing is that many of them lack the social graces to avoid telling
the newbies to their face about their hatred for them. First class folk,
eh? It didn't bother me too much, but I have a mostly tough hide. But it
does scare away a lot of folk.

I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.

It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

What are you (collectivley speaking) going to do - help - or just
make it as unpleasant for the new folk as possible?

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

"Mike Coslo" wrote:

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.

None of the area colleges do it -- that is, give instant credit because you
have a ham license. Like I previously stated, though, I believe some (if not
most) would allow you to petition for credit on the basis of 'life
experience', and you probably would have a relative degree of success.


If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.

I doubt if you take anyone off the street at random they could pass any
element test. However, study materials are easily obtained and, IMO,
virtually anyone can pass with a minimal amount of effort put into studying
them.


That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.

In the mid 90's when I routinely posted to this newsgroup, I made many
observations that I felt the number of licensed hams was being artifically
increased due to the extension of the licensing term from 5 to 10 years.
Likewise, I made comments regarding the attrition rate of licensees
resulting from the Tech license.

Starting in early '03, almost 12 years to the month the Tech license came on
the scene (10 year license term + 2 year grace period), the number of
licensed hams has steadily declined. This negative slope has continued,
relatively unabated, for the past 3 years. I do not expect it to reverse the
trend ever again. The best that may happen is there may be some form of
equilibrum achieved where the number of licensed hams remains constant +/- a
few thousand as expirations and new licensees fluctuate.


Ham radio was a common staple in the household 50 years ago?

No, radio. Radio was the "tech" of the '50s. Today, that "tech" takes other
forms: computers, cell phones, etc.


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.

What draws people to amateur radio? The technical aspect, or the utility
aspect?

It is my opinion that over the past 2 decades, the utility aspect of ham
radio has been the main drawing point, not the tech aspect. I think the tech
aspect of ham radio started to die out in the mid 80's when PCs started to
hit the scene. Radio may have been the focus of future EE's interests 40
years ago, but kids I grew up with were making breadboards for their
Apple ]['s.


Hate, Hate, Hate.

My operating time is minimal these days (too many other obligations), but I
try to get online at least one Saturday or Sunday a month. I simply do not
run across these same people that you do. I have many pleasant conversations
with both young (and new) hams around the country.


I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.

I did not submit any comments on this licensing change, because, frankly,
amateur radio is such a small part of my life these days that I could be
bothered (didn't even realize. Had I made comments, I would have reiterated
the comments I made in my 2000 NRPM filing, which called for 2 license
classes -- a class a and class b license, one for privs above 30mhz and one
for privs below.

It was my opinion in 2000, as it still is today, that the theory
examinations should test actual knowledge, and not rote memorization skills.
I supported the removal of element 1a in 2000, and I would support it again
today -- as long as their is a corresponding upgrade of the theory question
pools.


It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

None of the EE/CS students I work with are interested in ham radio at all.
The radio interests they have tend to focus in the consumer fields (like
cell phones) rather than, say, Marine HF or EPIRB systems. Radio simply
isn't "sexy" any longer.

KH6HZ wrote:
"Mike Coslo" wrote:

No, radio. Radio was the "tech" of the '50s. Today, that "tech" takes other
forms: computers, cell phones, etc.

There is no one who has "cellular phones" as a hobby. There is no
tinkering with them. There is no making them work in a way other than
the way they work. There is no equivalent of DXing, no equivalent of
contesting. One can rag chew all day--at a price. A cellular phone is
not the equvalent of amateur radio. Neither is the internet.


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.

What draws people to amateur radio? The technical aspect, or the utility
aspect?

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest
in DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and
operating a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in
touch with local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

It is my opinion that over the past 2 decades, the utility aspect of ham
radio has been the main drawing point, not the tech aspect. I think the tech
aspect of ham radio started to die out in the mid 80's when PCs started to
hit the scene. Radio may have been the focus of future EE's interests 40
years ago, but kids I grew up with were making breadboards for their
Apple ]['s.

I like 160 meter operation. I enjoy working my DX the hard way.
Installing efficient transmitting antennas and experimenting with
various receive antennas interest me. I enjoy weak signal VHF and UHF
operation. Some of the other locals have different ideas. K8JRG enjoys
fast scan television. W8MSD and KC8FZH enjoy tweaking their linked 440
repeaters. WD8MTN enjoys DC-to-daylight mobile operation. K8LQM likes
to rag chew with CW on 40m. KC8FZM uses 6m to control his model
aircraft. KA8YEZ is heavily involved in public service work.
Each fellow has his niche and yet is involved to a lesser degree with
other aspects of amateur radio.


It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

None of the EE/CS students I work with are interested in ham radio at all.
The radio interests they have tend to focus in the consumer fields (like
cell phones) rather than, say, Marine HF or EPIRB systems. Radio simply
isn't "sexy" any longer.

A cellular phone is a two-way radio. Don't tell those EE students or
they'll all throw theirs away after discovering that they are un-sexy.

Dave K8MN

"Dave Heil" wrote in message
ink.net...
KH6HZ wrote:
"Mike Coslo" wrote:

No, radio. Radio was the "tech" of the '50s. Today, that "tech" takes
other
forms: computers, cell phones, etc.

There is no one who has "cellular phones" as a hobby. There is no
tinkering with them. There is no making them work in a way other than
the way they work. There is no equivalent of DXing, no equivalent of
contesting. One can rag chew all day--at a price. A cellular phone is
not the equvalent of amateur radio. Neither is the internet.


If you think that Ham radio is an analog of cell phones and chat
rooms and webcams, you're not getting it, and affecionados of those
sports aren't at all likely to be interested in the ARS.

What draws people to amateur radio? The technical aspect, or the utility
aspect?

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest
in DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and
operating a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in
touch with local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

It is my opinion that over the past 2 decades, the utility aspect of ham
radio has been the main drawing point, not the tech aspect. I think the
tech
aspect of ham radio started to die out in the mid 80's when PCs started
to
hit the scene. Radio may have been the focus of future EE's interests 40
years ago, but kids I grew up with were making breadboards for their
Apple ]['s.

I like 160 meter operation. I enjoy working my DX the hard way.
Installing efficient transmitting antennas and experimenting with
various receive antennas interest me. I enjoy weak signal VHF and UHF
operation. Some of the other locals have different ideas. K8JRG enjoys
fast scan television. W8MSD and KC8FZH enjoy tweaking their linked 440
repeaters. WD8MTN enjoys DC-to-daylight mobile operation. K8LQM likes
to rag chew with CW on 40m. KC8FZM uses 6m to control his model
aircraft. KA8YEZ is heavily involved in public service work.
Each fellow has his niche and yet is involved to a lesser degree with
other aspects of amateur radio.


It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

None of the EE/CS students I work with are interested in ham radio at
all.
The radio interests they have tend to focus in the consumer fields (like
cell phones) rather than, say, Marine HF or EPIRB systems. Radio simply
isn't "sexy" any longer.

A cellular phone is a two-way radio. Don't tell those EE students or
they'll all throw theirs away after discovering that they are un-sexy.

Dave K8MN

But, Dave. The kiddies using cell phones think that text messaging is all
the hoot these days! Hams have been doing text messaging (CW) for decades.
Cell phones? They can arguably be called modern day two way radios that have
their roots in the precursors of Ham Radio auto patch systems of 30 or more
years ago. Same concept, but with different frequencies and digital
enhancements.
I am old enough to remember way back when my buddy set up an auto patch on
his repeater system. The phone company was even then rattling the ears of
Govt. regulators by arguing that Hams were making phone calls, "free" phone
calls, and not paying the Piper..the Piper being Ma Bell.

Who needs "sexy"? Amateur Radio is a hobby that one takes to for the sheer
enjoyment of same. Besides, when our cell towers go belly up due to power
outages or simple overloads, I can easily switch over to my Marine batteries
and carry on, uninterrupted, for weeks if need be.

dit dit dit dah...

"Dave Heil" wrote:

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest in
DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and operating
a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in touch with
local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

None of this draws people to ham radio these days (in large numbers, I'm
sure there are always exceptions and there are some people who join the
amateur ranks for the reasons you list.) In reality I do not disagree with
anything you have posted in your followup message.

All one has to do is view the licensing stats at Speroni's site to see the
future of ham radio.

Amateur radio licensees peaked in 04/03 at 687,860 -- exactly 12 years (10
years + 2 years grace period) after the introduction of the Tech license,
which illustrates all the no-code Tech license did for ham radio was stall
the inevitable negative slope in licensing statistics we see today.

In the past 43 months, Amateur radio has lost 31,000 licensees. In the 43
months preceeding that high point, Amateur Radio added 11,919. Thus, we are
losing amateurs at 2.5 times the rate we added them in just the same period
before.


I do not believe that elimination of the code test will reverse this trend,
because:

a) I do not believe the code test represented a significant barrier to entry
for many people (post 2000) looking for HF privileges. At 5WPM the cost test
did little more than to test the applicant's ability to rote memorize a
table of dits and dahs, and perform a mental table lookup. For this reason,
I do not feel there is this huge untapped reservior of people waiting in the
wings to get a ham license, as there were when the code test was eliminated
for VHF. I'm sure there are *some* people, I simply do not feel it is a
statistically significant amount.

b) I do not feel the "problem" with ham radio is the code test, or geezer
operators bitchin' on the air about non-coded operators. For reasons that
clearly we can debate for eons, the younger generations that I work and
interact with on a daily basis simply are not interested in ham radio the
way folks 20+ years ago were. My 8 and 12 year olds would rather play XBOX
than sit around learning radio theory. EE/CS students I work with are
thinking "consumer electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".


We can get together in 2010 and see if there were any meaningful bump in
license stats as a result of this change. I'm sticking with my original
predictions in my original reply to Steve's posting

73
KH6HZ

"Mike Coslo" wrote in message
6...
"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"K4YZ" wrote:


[snip]

Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease.

If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.


I agree with you, Mike, on this one. I've taught classes for the Extra
class license. Many of the students came in with no technical background
other than what they had learned in studying for their Tech & General
licenses. It took a lot of study on their part to get the material.
Teaching vectors to people who have had no math higher than basic algebra
was quite a challenge.

As far as those who may have just "memorized the question pools" instead of
learning the material, memorizing 800+ questions for the Extra is still
quite a challenge. Add the 400+ in the Tech pool and the 400+ in the
General pool and that is an awful lot of questions to memorize.


I do not believe there is
this huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join
the amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o
a code test.

I'm agreed with you there.

I too believe that there is no such reservoir. When they see my antennas on
my car, they ask out of curiosity but when I tell them what it is for, they
often say "what's ham radio?" I explain a bit about ham radio to try to
pique their interest but so far no luck. They do not express any interest in
pursuing this hobby.

[snip]



Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.


Definitely not dead or dying. We've simply peaked (and actually overshot
due to the honeydo hams, etc). It will decline for a while and then
stabilize. I saw some statistics somewhere on the web that supports this
idea. If we exclude Japan (which licenses a large number of school children
in science classes who then don't continue), we have the highest percentage
of hams in the population. Most countires have approximately 1 ham per
thousand people. We have just over 2 hams per thousand people.

It's nowhere near the time to start the funeral service. If each of us
active hams as individuals manage to recruit one ham in our lifetime who
stays active, we will hold steady as far as active hams go. Note that I
specify active since as many as half our current ham population may be
inactive for one reason or another. If we recruit more than one each,
amateur radio will resume growth after flushing out the inactives.

[snip]
Now if ya really want to know what I think is the pressing problem,
and the biggest threat to the future of Ham radio, I'll tell you.

Tune across 75/80 meters in the evening. Plenty of good, code
tested (I'm assuming) amateurs who seem to have enough anger stored in
their gullet to increase the blood pressure of ten normal people. They
are mad at people like myself who are nickle Extras, they are mad at the
new "crop of CB'ers" who are coming along since the FCC caved into the
the forces of evil and eliminated Element 1. Hate, Hate, Hate. Frankly
they sound a lot more like CB'ers than they know. Sorry, but a tune
across 80 meters, and a lot of 20 meters puts the lie to how Morse
testing keeps up the neighborhood. The question to ask is would you want
your kids hanging out with these folk?

I firmly believe that the biggest threat to Amateur Radio at this
time is the grouchy, grumpy Hams that turn every conversation into
bitching about the great unwashed are destroying the hobby. Making sure
that the new guys and gals feel perfectly unwelcome. Especially
endearing is that many of them lack the social graces to avoid telling
the newbies to their face about their hatred for them. First class folk,
eh? It didn't bother me too much, but I have a mostly tough hide. But it
does scare away a lot of folk.


This is one of several elements that could be a danger to amateur radio.
There were and are a few of the codeless advocates that expressed open
contempt for people who did not share their view. If that is carried into
operation on the ham bands, that too will damage amateur radio. I will
welcome all who are good people with good manners but I will not interact
with those who treat me with disrespect. The respectful people, I will
encourage them to keep active and help them learn that there are times when
the bands are bad and the bands will improve. I'll help them learn how to
use their equipment, etc. The disrepectful will have to fend for
themselves. If they become respectful, I will then help them.

I had hoped that the new system was going to be one in which an Op
had to have some time in the saddle before upgrading, so as to get
valuable experience, or at least have the chance to get it. FWIW, I had
hoped that they retained the code test. But it isn't that way, so that
means that there will be a lot of new folks with HF access who will need
a lot of Elmering.

It will actually be a very exciting time, I'm hoping to get some
new folk as excited about the hobby as I am.

What are you (collectivley speaking) going to do - help - or just
make it as unpleasant for the new folk as possible?

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

Personally I will give everyone whatever help they need unless they
repeatedly act in a disrespectful manner (afterall anyone can slip
occasionally). I will continue to invite new ops over to my shack and
mentor them. I'll continue to encourage new hams to join a club in their
area. If that club is not a good match, I'll encourage them to try other
clubs. I'll continue to encourage them to participate in club activities
(service activities, Field Day, etc). I'll continue to teach classes and
continue to be a VE.

Dee, N8UZE

"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Mike Coslo" wrote:

PStU has a credit course - EE 010S.

None of the area colleges do it -- that is, give instant credit because
you have a ham license. Like I previously stated, though, I believe some
(if not most) would allow you to petition for credit on the basis of 'life
experience', and you probably would have a relative degree of success.


If I may, I can't help but notice that the olde time hams must have
been born knowing all about HF or something. Look at the Extra test, and
tell me that you will take a random group from off the street, set them
down, and say 80 percent will pass the test? I think I'm pretty generous
giving you a 20 percent spot from "anyone" to 80 percent.

I doubt if you take anyone off the street at random they could pass any
element test. However, study materials are easily obtained and, IMO,
virtually anyone can pass with a minimal amount of effort put into
studying them.


I disagree. I've taught classes where the students had no math background
beyond basic high school math and they also had very limited ham experience.
They had to work very hard to get the material, especially the Extra class
material.

Even if they just chose to memorize the questions, it isn't easy to memorize
400+ questions for Tech, 400+ questions for General and 800+ questions for
Extra.


That will not change until that inactive groupp of Technicians is
flushed from the rolls. They have not been active since cell phones
became ascendent. The Honeydo list is handled quite nicely by that
technology.


Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

No, it isn't, and won't be dying either. Perhaps your definition of
Ham Radio is fading away - a definition that I would guess where rank is
measured by how fast a person can send and recieve Morse code.

In the mid 90's when I routinely posted to this newsgroup, I made many
observations that I felt the number of licensed hams was being artifically
increased due to the extension of the licensing term from 5 to 10 years.
Likewise, I made comments regarding the attrition rate of licensees
resulting from the Tech license.

Starting in early '03, almost 12 years to the month the Tech license came
on the scene (10 year license term + 2 year grace period), the number of
licensed hams has steadily declined. This negative slope has continued,
relatively unabated, for the past 3 years. I do not expect it to reverse
the trend ever again. The best that may happen is there may be some form
of equilibrum achieved where the number of licensed hams remains constant
+/- a few thousand as expirations and new licensees fluctuate.


The Tech license existed before that. I believe that you are actually
referring to when the codeless Technician license was created. Compared to
the total number of licensees at this time, it's a pretty shallow slope. It
could potentially stop declining in about 2010 or perhaps a year or two
later. That will pretty much have flushed out the cell phone hams since
2000 to 2002 is about when cell phones really started becoming common and
relatively affordable.

Dee, N8UZE