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Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
On Fri, 2 Feb 2007 08:21:20 -0500, "Dee Flint"
wrote: "Bob Brock" wrote in message .. . On Thu, 1 Feb 2007 17:44:10 -0500, "Dee Flint" wrote: "Bob Brock" wrote in message t... "Dee Flint" wrote in message . .. "Bob Brock" wrote in message news:_Eovh.2876$ch1.1567@bigfe9... [snip] It will be very tough to grow ham radio. We've "saturated the market" so to speak. You could be right. What we need to do is recruit OUTSIDE the newsgroups and let people know that it exists and what they can do with it. If you guys want to sit here and say that there is no reason for hams to discuss methods to recruit new hams here because the only people on the newsgroups are the ones who recruit new hams, go ahead. You misunderstood. I did not say we should not talk about methods. I said actually recruiting here is not going to help as those who don't know about ham radio won't be here. Agreed. It would be like recruiting in QST. What word is it that you want to get out? That ham radio is a very good option to evaluate when meeting a specific groups needs. That it is relatively reliable, economical, All these methods must be used as you never know what will pique some one's interest. What are the competitors to ham radio? GMRS, FRS, MURS, cell phones, CB, etc.? What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each of these? Why would ham radio be a better choice. See above. Then you could discuss market demographics. What kind of people might be interested in ham radio? How about hunters and fishermen who may want to be able to talk back people who are out with them? Perhaps people who are interested in off grid living and homesteaders? Perhaps farmers who want to be able to call back to the house when they are out in the field? How about emergency communications like being able to either call home or get someone else to call home for you when your car is broke down? This list too could be a lot longer. See above. However, interest can come from any person. The particular uses you list here however will be better served by other alternatives. There we have to agree to disagree. I think that ham radio would be beneficial to all of the groups that I mentioned. However, no one is presenting the information to them so they don't think about it. Once you decide what the demographics are, you could look at what kinds of media do these people read? I can tell you right now, it's not ham specific magazines such as QST. That was my point. You've got to go "outside". If you go back to my initial post, I think you would see that it was my point to. However, this would be a good place to evaluate what you are going to take outside. Ideas that come to mind, based on the list that I've provided are the various newsgroups and list servers that cater to their needs. Magazines that sell to homesteaders such as Countryside Magazine or Mother Earth. All kinds of hunting and fishing magazines out there. There are a lot of media outlets tailored to older people and people on a tight budget/fixed income. You could also look at organizations publications of specific groups. This list too is abbreviated. As far as magazines go, unless you want to pay for ad space, you've got to find a way to tie it into an area of interest actually covered by the magazine to try to get it published. I think this should be given a try though. Advertising would better be handled by an organization. I was thinking about articles in the magazine. If the writer can't find a "tie in" then it is apparent that you are looking at the wrong demographic and need to find a media outlet that caters to another demographic. Two of the barriers to people getting a ham license that I run into quite a bit are the Morse Code requirement and a lot of people don't realize that there is a difference between ham and CB. The code barrier is gone and that is a good lead in as to why someone may want to consider ham radio even if they had dismissed it at an earlier time. I agree with the CB idea but no one that I ran into even knew about the code requirement. So I doubt that the latter was significant. Then you have been talking to a very demographic from me. The ones that I've talked into getting a Tech license were turned off by code. Granted some of them are higher class licenses now. The CB stigma would be hard to overcome though. Then someone could look back over the various open discussions and write an article to be submitted to any of the various media describing the advantages of ham radio over other methods. People who otherwise hadn't considered ham radio as an option for their particular needs may get a chance to see that it is indeed an option that would meet a need. It's not only a good chance to promote ham radio in a media read by someone other than hams, you might make a little money from it. There are many here with excellent writing skills who are capable of doing it. The other option is to take a fatalistic viewpoint that the market is saturated and growth is impossible. That's not necessarily fatalistic but something one must be aware of in order to tailor their recruiting approach. To that, I say that marketing is everything and right now the vast majority of marketing is keyed towards those already in ham radio. It's a policy that I disagree with and if no one else wants to do it, it's something that I will do alone as soon as time permits. However, that may be after the current widow of opportunity created by dropping the code requirement has passed and that would be truly unfortunate. Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they deal with it. This applies to everything from toasters to cars to TV programming to any hobby you can name. For example, there's no growth in the US toaster market. Each manufacturer works on keeping their market share or growing their share. Similarly, we will have to show why our activity deserves more of a person's free time than other activities. If the market is saturated at current levels, then we should face the fact that ham radio is obsolete and as quaint as horse buggies. I'm only using the manufacturing analogy because you did. Personally, I see ham radio as a service and not a product. I see a lot of households who don't have one and they don't have one because they don't see a need for it that can't be met someway else. I do agree that the "marketing" of our hobby does need to be much better than it is. We need to seek out and find those that would be interested. Those that perhaps lack interest only because they have not heard about it or know very little about it. Marketing the hobby is not the same as marketing the hardware or a specific aspect of ham radio within the ham community. Current marketing is focusing on the latter items. I hope you do get out and market our hobby. Many of us do promote the hobby within our circle of family, friends, acquaintances, co-workers, etc. Then you are marketing to what is pretty much a closed set. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with that and it's what I would guess most hams are doing. They are relying on organizations such as the AARL to market for new members and the AARL isn't doing it. Hence, what are already low numbers continue to drop. |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
"Bob Brock" wrote in message ... On Fri, 2 Feb 2007 08:21:20 -0500, "Dee Flint" wrote: [snip] Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they deal with it. This applies to everything from toasters to cars to TV programming to any hobby you can name. For example, there's no growth in the US toaster market. Each manufacturer works on keeping their market share or growing their share. Similarly, we will have to show why our activity deserves more of a person's free time than other activities. If the market is saturated at current levels, then we should face the fact that ham radio is obsolete and as quaint as horse buggies. I'm only using the manufacturing analogy because you did. Personally, I see ham radio as a service and not a product. I see a lot of households who don't have one and they don't have one because they don't see a need for it that can't be met someway else. Saturation does not equate to being obsolete. The market (toasters, TVs, etc) for almost all current consumer goods has been saturated for decades. The consumer buys for one of three reasons: 1) A person setting up their own household for the first time; 2) The old one broke; 3) They just want a new one. The toaster market (a saturated market) stays pretty steady year after year for the three reason listed. It does not grow (at least here in the US). What I am saying with the marketing analogy is that there is an inherent limit on the percentage of people that will be interested in ham radio. We are probably close to that limit. Yes we can and will find prospective hams by active recruiting. However, given it's limited appeal, finding those people will merely enable us to maintain stability. Actually, looking at other countries with well off populations, I would suspect that we may drop from our current approximately 2 hams per thousand people down to more like 1 ham per thousand people before we finally stabilize. And we'll have to recruit diligently to stabilize even there. Dee, N8UZE |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
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Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
"Bob Brock" wrote in message ... On Fri, 2 Feb 2007 08:21:20 -0500, "Dee Flint" wrote: [snip] Marketing the hobby is not the same as marketing the hardware or a specific aspect of ham radio within the ham community. Current marketing is focusing on the latter items. I hope you do get out and market our hobby. Many of us do promote the hobby within our circle of family, friends, acquaintances, co-workers, etc. Then you are marketing to what is pretty much a closed set. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with that and it's what I would guess most hams are doing. They are relying on organizations such as the AARL to market for new members and the AARL isn't doing it. Hence, what are already low numbers continue to drop. Our numbers per population are the second highest in the world so the "already low numbers" is a fallacy. Only Japan has a higher percentage and it is difficult to determine the validity of their numbers since they license many people for life in grade school, many of whom are never active. Comparing it to parts of Europe, they have 1 ham per thousand where we have 2 hams per thousand. The grass roots approach could possibly be the most effective. I know hunters, truckers, fishermen, farmers, etc. All of them know additional people that I don't If I recruit two ACTIVE people, and they in turn recruit two more each and so on, we would have explosive growth in amateur radio. Remember tsunamis are generally initiated by a single event in a single location. Actually I don't view the ARRL as being responsible for marketing ham radio and recruiting new people. I view them as a service to their members type of thing. However it might not be a bad idea to suggest to them that they set up a donation fund for placing ads in non ham magazines. Dee, N8UZE |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
On Fri, 2 Feb 2007 16:15:07 -0500, "Dee Flint"
wrote: "Bob Brock" wrote in message .. . On Fri, 2 Feb 2007 08:21:20 -0500, "Dee Flint" wrote: [snip] Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they deal with it. This applies to everything from toasters to cars to TV programming to any hobby you can name. For example, there's no growth in the US toaster market. Each manufacturer works on keeping their market share or growing their share. Similarly, we will have to show why our activity deserves more of a person's free time than other activities. If the market is saturated at current levels, then we should face the fact that ham radio is obsolete and as quaint as horse buggies. I'm only using the manufacturing analogy because you did. Personally, I see ham radio as a service and not a product. I see a lot of households who don't have one and they don't have one because they don't see a need for it that can't be met someway else. Saturation does not equate to being obsolete. The market (toasters, TVs, etc) for almost all current consumer goods has been saturated for decades. The consumer buys for one of three reasons: 1) A person setting up their own household for the first time; 2) The old one broke; 3) They just want a new one. The toaster market (a saturated market) stays pretty steady year after year for the three reason listed. It does not grow (at least here in the US). What I am saying with the marketing analogy is that there is an inherent limit on the percentage of people that will be interested in ham radio. We are probably close to that limit. Yes we can and will find prospective hams by active recruiting. However, given it's limited appeal, finding those people will merely enable us to maintain stability. Actually, looking at other countries with well off populations, I would suspect that we may drop from our current approximately 2 hams per thousand people down to more like 1 ham per thousand people before we finally stabilize. And we'll have to recruit diligently to stabilize even there. Dee, N8UZE Since I think that the percentage is much higher, I guess we will have to agree to disagree. However, be warned that even if you are right, I'll probably still think that it was the result of a self fulfilling prophecy by the ham community at large. Take care Dee. If we don't suffer another setback, my wife will be coming home from the hospital within a week or so. When she does, taking care of her and letting her know that I love her is gong to be my main priority until she once again achieves independence. It's going to be a 24/7 job for awhile. I'm saying that so that, when I disappear, people don't think that I got mad and took my bag of marbles home. It's just a matter of priorities. |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
"Dee Flint" wrote:
Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still must face the equivalent of market saturation. Not everyone is going to be interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our general population growth is very slow. These issues must be considered when devising a strategy. This is why I believe the way to "save" ham radio is "quality over quantity". You cannot "save" ham radio by throwing more bodies at it. You can only save ham radio by making it such an essential service that the FCC dare not eliminate it. Look at how many people believed and still believe that Morse code kept people out. They think there is a huge number of people just waiting in the wings chomping at the bit to become hams without having to take a code test. I'll certainly be happy and excited if that happens but let's say it doesn't (and I think it won't). You and I both. Did you post your prediction for the "pool" (as to where ARS licensing numbers will be in another year? I said -1 to 0% change. While I'm sure there are *some* people who will get licensed now there is no code test, I do not think it will result in any meaningful numbers added to the service. I suspect what you will see are a rash of upgrades as Techs obtain HF privs. I wouldn't be surprised if, for the first time in many years, we actually saw a *decrease* in the number of licensed Techs (which, at the moment, is the only growing license class sans the Extra class) What then will people propose? Why... its those NASTY, pesky THEORY examinations that are holding people away, naturally. After all, if all you want to do is talk to your buddy 2 streets over on the local repeater, why do you need to know stupid things like radio wave propagation and antenna theory. All I do is call HRO, and my antenna theory arrives pre-manufacturered in a box. Maybe rather than having tests on RLC circuits we can have tests on the proper way to tighten hose clamps. We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute" hams are, for the most part, gone. That's several years still of decline. With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no more recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in this way. I think you'll bottom out in the mid 300k's and stay there.... Or, the rate of decline will fall off rapidly but still continue, slowly, as the ARS peters out into non-existance by the mid 2020's. The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of recruits. "Radio" simply isn't 'sexy' these days, with the internet, etc. Radio-based "hobbies" are, for the most part, D-E-A-D. We need another "Smokey and the Bandit" movie to glamourize CB/Ham radio again. Perhaps they will realize that it is a recruitment and marketing issue rather than requirements. Perhaps the ARRL should work with Yaesu, Kenwood, Cushcraft, etc. to arrange for interested college clubs around the country to get free gear to set up a station. Who knows. 73 kh6hz |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
"KH6HZ" wrote in message ... "Dee Flint" wrote: [snip] You and I both. Did you post your prediction for the "pool" (as to where ARS licensing numbers will be in another year? I said -1 to 0% change. Yes, since it is my pool! While I'm sure there are *some* people who will get licensed now there is no code test, I do not think it will result in any meaningful numbers added to the service. I suspect what you will see are a rash of upgrades as Techs obtain HF privs. I wouldn't be surprised if, for the first time in many years, we actually saw a *decrease* in the number of licensed Techs (which, at the moment, is the only growing license class sans the Extra class) What then will people propose? Why... its those NASTY, pesky THEORY examinations that are holding people away, naturally. You do know that one definition of insanity is when you keep doing the same thing (changing requirements) but expect different results! Dee, N8UZE |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
On Feb 2, 4:26�pm, Bob Brock wrote:
On 2 Feb 2007 04:02:21 -0800, wrote: On Feb 2, 1:29?am, Bob Brock wrote: On Thu, 1 Feb 2007 17:44:10 -0500, "Dee Flint" Then let's discuss ways of improving that growth. What word is it that you want to get out? GOOD QUESTION! That you can talk to people in foreign lands? *hat it is a good hobby for older people who are shut in to be able to talk to new friends? *hat you can use it for reliable communications with family and friends? *ow about the public service aspects such as SKYWARN and ARIES? *his is just a quick list of things that I can think of because, as I already said, time is kind of short for me right now and I think that brainstorming is a much better method. *hat's why I suggested it. Here's my version: 1) Ham radio exists *today* 2) It's very different from other kinds of radio, such as cb, GMRS/ FRS, broadcasting, etc. 3) You can do a wide variety of things with ham radio, including some that you can't do in other radio services. There are only a few things you cannot do in ham radio (commercial operation, music. broadcasting). 4) Ham radio operation requires FCC licensing. Getting a license requires passing *multiple choice tests and making an application to FCC. 5) Ham radio is essentially "radio for its own sake" - an end in itself more than a means to an end. 6) One word: FUN! That's a good list. Thanks! What are the competitors to ham radio? *MRS, FRS, MURS, cell phones, CB, etc.? *hat are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each of these? *hy would ham radio be a better choice. I'd be careful with that one. I can see comparative advantages for ham radio over all of the ones that I mentioned. In some situations, yes. But in most situations, those other services are preferred - *if* the only consideration is getting the communications done. For example, there was a time when auto-in-trouble (including accident) calls to 911 were commonly done via amateur radio autopatch. Today most of that is done by cell phones. I think one of the main reasons for lack of growth over the past several years has been that for a long time now ham radio has been presented as a sort of "personal radio service", with emphasis on radio as a means to an end rather than an end in itself. The problem with that approach is that as soon as a technology appears that also serves that end, we lose out. I think that we lose out to inferior services and why we do that is another thread altogether. * "Inferior services"? I say they are different, not inferior. I think it's important to understand what we are actually trying to "sell". Selling amateur radio as a personal-communications solution isn't a good idea, IMHO. I think that amateur radio will continue to exist only if it emphasizes how it is unique, rather than how it is similar to other radio services. That ham radio is unique is a selling point. It's the main selling point, IMHO, and we need to always keep it in mind. *It offers benefits that none of the others have to offer to certain demographics. Such as? Then you could discuss market demographics. *hat kind of people might be interested in ham radio? *ow about hunters and fishermen who may want to be able to talk back people who are out with them? *erhaps people who are interested in off grid living and homesteaders? Perhaps farmers who want to be able to call back to the house when they are out in the field? *ow about emergency communications like being able to either call home or get someone else to call home for you when your car is broke down? *his list too could be a lot longer. The problem is that most of what you describe is about radio as a means to an end rather than radio for its own sake. FRS, GMRS, and cell phones can already do most or all of what is written above. The thing to point out is what amateur radio can do that other radio services cannot: - Wide variety of modes and bands - Homebrew, kit or manufactured equipment, old to new technologies. - Local, regional, national, international and even space communications *without* dependence on commercial infrastructure. - Competition (radiosport) - Public service communications - Emergency communications Thank you. *It's a good list. Thanks. Once you decide what the demographics are, you could look at what kinds of media do these people read? * *can tell you right now, it's not ham specific magazines such as QST. * * * *deas that come to mind, based on the list that I've provided are the various newsgroups and list servers that cater to their needs. agazines that sell to homesteaders such as Countryside Magazine or Mother Earth. ll kinds of hunting and fishing magazines out there. *here are a lot of media outlets tailored to older people and people on a tight budget/fixed income. *ou could also look at organizations publications of specific groups. *his list too is abbreviated. This is a very good point. Here are some more ideas: - Ads/articles in boating, camping, RVing and flying magazines - Highly visible amateur radio exhibits at air shows, town fairs, parades, etc. - Community-access cable TV and public radio/TV exposure - Placement of amateur radio magazines, books and other material in local schools, particularly middle schools. Once again, a very good list and one that I agree with. Thanks yet again. Two of the barriers to people getting a ham license that I run into quite a bit are the Morse Code requirement and a lot of people don't realize that there is a difference between ham and CB. *he code barrier is gone and that is a good lead in as to why someone may want to consider ham radio even if they had dismissed it at an earlier time. I don't think the Morse Code test is the "barrier" that it is often said to be, but that's soon to be a moot point. The code/no-code thing is past us now. Almost! Three weeks. *I agree that it's time to move on to potentially productive discussions and get past hurt feelings in the past. *Of course, that's easy for me to say since I elected not to participate during the battle. I think one major point to keep in mind is how much the code test was supposedly limiting growth. We will soon see just how true that claim really was. I do think confusion between cb and Amateur Radio has really hurt growth in Amateur Radio for many years. Agreed again. *This doesn't happen often. You mean agreement? I disagree ;-) I also think that complete ignorance, or gross misunderstanding, of the *existence* of Amateur Radio is a continuing problem. Then someone could look back over the various open discussions and write an article to be submitted to any of the various media describing the advantages of ham radio over other methods. *eople who otherwise hadn't considered ham radio as an option for their particular needs may get a chance to see that it is indeed an option that would meet a need. Perhaps - but that method emphasizes "means to an end". I say the best selling point is that simply going on the air and making contacts is a heck of a lot of fun. So is designing, building, testing, fixing and repairing your own radio setup. That's what ham radio is really all about, isn't it? It's like trying to sell sailboats instead of motorboats by emphasizing how a sailboat doesn't need lots of fuel the way a motorboat does, and is only a bit slower than many motorboats. You may sell a few sailboats that way, but it's not the best approach IMHO. The way to sell sailboats is to sell the unique *experience* of sailboating itself - how it makes you feel, how much fun it is, etc. Sailing as an end in itself. Some people will "get it", most won't. Of course most people's motivations to do something are a mix of the practical and the emotional. So the ultimate goal is to appeal to both of those, not just the practical. Agreed and point taken. There are lots more. The invention of photography did not eliminate drawing, sketching and painting. The invention of the motorcycle did not eliminate the bicycle. Many homes still have fireplaces even though they have modern, efficient heating systems. It's not only a good chance to promote ham radio in a media read by someone other than hams, you might make a little money from it. *here are many here with excellent writing skills who are capable of doing it. The other option is to take a fatalistic viewpoint that the market is saturated and growth is impossible. *o that, I say that marketing is everything and right now the vast majority of marketing is keyed towards those already in ham radio. * *t's a policy that I disagree with and if no one else wants to do it, it's something that I will do alone as soon as time permits. *owever, that may be after the current widow of opportunity created by dropping the code requirement has passed and that would be truly unfortunate How something is sold is very important, though. If we sell amateur radio only by what it can do for your personal communications needs, we will always be at the mercy of the next technological improvement. Any technology is at the mercy of technological improvement. Yes and no. The invention of fiberglass did not eliminate wooden sailboats. *I think that we are using one of ham radio's biggest competitors right now. The internet is only a competitor if you don't consider radio to be an end in itself. The only advantage of ham radio over the Internet is mobility and price. *Otherwise, anything you could imagine doing via radio can be done here either via newsgroups or IRC. I disagree! An internet-capable computer can be had for almost no cost. The computer I am writing this on is a Dell Dimension XPS R400 - which cost me nothing but the time to set it up and add a few pieces (CD burner, soundcard) from other old computers. AOL with DSL costs less than POTS. That kinda eliminates price as an issue. Mobility is served in most cases by a cell phone. What amateur radio offers that the 'net and telephone don't is a completely unique experience, and freedom from dependence on a commercial infrastructure. That's not going to change with technology. However, that too is something better left to another thread. Or this one. Good luck with your family's health issues. I hope they are quickly resolved in a good way. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
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Unwritten policy and the intent of the average amateur ...
On Feb 2, 10:43�pm, Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote ups.com: On Jan 30, 8:03�pm, " wrote: previous post stuff snipped * *At last, an amateur extra licensee besides Hans Brakob * *who admits what has been visible for years. * *The old paradigms are no longer worth a pair of pennies. Which old paradigms, Len? What should the old paradigms be replaced with? Element one is gone. In three weeks, yes. The hams who fought code elimination for so many years, many with unbridled hatred for uncoded hams, or even nickle Extras such as myself now are at a crossroads. Do you think I am one of those you describe, Mike? Have you ever seen me display hatred for *any* amateur radio operator who follows the rules? They can either accept the change for what it is, or become like little neutron stars, perhaps embracing their hatred, perhaps clanning together to reminisce about the good old days when hems were really hams. There's nothing wrong with opposing a change that one thinks is not a good idea. Of course there are good ways and bad ways of opposing a change. Perhaps not much consolation however in the fact that they will have become irrelevant. Why should any radio amateur be irrelevant? My experience leads me to suspect that most will choose the latter. Too bad, that. That works both ways. The new paradigm IMO should be that hams should now be expected to advance their technical skills and knowledge. That's not a new paradigm at all. It's as old as amateur radio itself. In fact, it's a very old, traditional paradigm. Basically it says that amateur radio operators are not simply users of radio appliances. IMHO. The days when a Ham's worth was measured by motor skills and auditory processing ability are gone. Operating skills are still a major part of amateur radio - and what hams should have and continue to develop. Whether or not they are tested doesn't mean those skills are no longer relevant. I'm planning on moving on and am excited by the new potential. * * * * What are you going to do? Promote amateur radio - help other hams and wouldbe hams - enjoy building, fixing, operating, teaching, and learning. IOW, the same stuff I've been doing in amateur radio for almost 40 years. No new paradigm at all. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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