"Dee Flint" wrote:

Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it.

Yes, with planned obsolescence.

Not exactly the same thing in ham radio, nor can we really deal with it the
same way.

73
kh6hz

"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Dee Flint" wrote:

Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it.

Yes, with planned obsolescence.

Not exactly the same thing in ham radio, nor can we really deal with it
the same way.

73
kh6hz

Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still must
face the equivalent of market saturation. Not everyone is going to be
interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our
general population growth is very slow. These issues must be considered
when devising a strategy. Look at how many people believed and still
believe that Morse code kept people out. They think there is a huge number
of people just waiting in the wings chomping at the bit to become hams
without having to take a code test. I'll certainly be happy and excited if
that happens but let's say it doesn't (and I think it won't). What then
will people propose? Will they continue to ignore concepts like market
saturation as one potentially relevant issue? Will they continue to ignore
the concept that not everyone is interested in the types of things that
amateur radio can do?

We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute"
hams are, for the most part, gone. That's several years still of decline.
With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no more
recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in this
way.

The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of
recruits.

This actually leads to the major reason for my little guessing game on the
growth of amateur radio without a code test. If my prediction is wrong and
we have a huge growth, I'll be happy and readily admit that I was wrong. If
the growth doesn't happen, perhaps people will wake up and realize that
changing requirements won't address the issue. Perhaps they will realize
that it is a recruitment and marketing issue rather than requirements.

Dee, N8UZE

On Feb 2, 1:07�pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
"KH6HZ" wrote in message

...

"Dee Flint" wrote:

Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it.

Yes, with planned obsolescence.

Not exactly the same thing in ham radio, nor can we really deal with it
the same way.

Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still must
face the equivalent of market saturation. *

Well, yes and no.

To use the toaster analogy, there's no growth in toaster sales because
almost everyone who wants or needs a toaster already has one or more.
The percentage of Americans who want toasting technology in their
homes is very large, too.

New toaster sales today are almost all either replacements for worn-
out old toasters, or to people setting up a new kitchen.

The key point is that there aren't large numbers of people out there
who don't know about toasters and who will step up and buy one or more
if modern toasting is presented to them in a positive way.

But with amateur radio, I think there are sizable numbers of people
who don't even know amateur radio exists, or who have very distorted
ideas about it. *Those* are the people we need to reach.

Of course many of them won't be interested, no matter what the license
requirements are, because "radio for its own sake" just doesn't
interest as many people as, say, whole wheat toast with butter and
marmalade.

Not everyone is going to be
interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our
general population growth is very slow.

I think the population growth is particularly slow in the demographics
that would be most interested in becoming hams, too.

All that means is that we need to get the word out.

*These issues must be considered
when devising a strategy. *Look at how many people believed and still
believe that Morse code kept people out. *They think there is a huge number
of people just waiting in the wings chomping at the bit to become hams
without having to take a code test.

Exactly.

If that were really true, the number of US hams by license class would
be as lopsided as it is in Japan. But it's not.

*I'll certainly be happy and excited if
that happens

Me too!

but let's say it doesn't (and I think it won't). *What then
will people propose?

Reducing the written tests, of course. In fact, that's already been
proposed by NCVEC (see their "Communicator" license idea, and the
paper "Amateur Radio in the 21st Century").

*Will they continue to ignore concepts like market
saturation as one potentially relevant issue? *Will they continue to ignore
the concept that not everyone is interested in the types of things that
amateur radio can do?

We will see in the next few months.

But remember that the resturcturing of 2000 did not result in longterm
growth.

We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute"
hams are, for the most part, gone. *That's several years still of decline.
With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no more
recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in this
way.

The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of
recruits.

Yup.

Another factor is that many of the new hams of the 70s-'80s-'90s were
not young people when they started out. More than a few I know were
empty-nesters and retirees - and now they aren't with us anymore.

Also, it should be remembered that back in the supposed "golden age"
of amateur radio - whenever that supposedly was - there were not only
far fewer hams than today, but the number of hams per 1000 people was
far lower. Only in the past few years has the US population grown
faster than the US amateur population.

This actually leads to the major reason for my little guessing game on the
growth of amateur radio without a code test. *If my prediction is wrong and
we have a huge growth, I'll be happy and readily admit that I was wrong. *

Same here. That's one reason I will continue to post the ARS license
numbers here twice a month. That way, anyone can go back through the
archives and see the long-term trends.

If
the growth doesn't happen, perhaps people will wake up and realize that
changing requirements won't address the issue. *Perhaps they will realize
that it is a recruitment and marketing issue rather than requirements.

I agree!

But mark my words: there will be loud cries that the written tests
need to be reduced as well.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
But with amateur radio, I think there are sizable numbers of people
who don't even know amateur radio exists, or who have very distorted
ideas about it. *Those* are the people we need to reach.

Some of them work for the Madisonville Independent
School District here in Texas. Their web filters
block anything related to amateur radio as "entertainment".
When I try to access www.arrl.org, I get a message
saying it is blocked because it is "entertainment".
A school system that blocks anything associated
with amateur radio is in very sad shape.
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com

On Feb 2, 10:57�am, Cecil Moore wrote:
wrote:
But with amateur radio, I think there are sizable numbers of people
who don't even know amateur radio exists, or who have very distorted
ideas about it. *Those* are the people we need to reach.

Some of them work for the Madisonville Independent
School District here in Texas. Their web filters
block anything related to amateur radio as "entertainment".
When I try to accesswww.arrl.org, I get a message
saying it is blocked because it is "entertainment".
A school system that blocks anything associated
with amateur radio is in very sad shape.
--
73, Cecil *http://www.w5dxp.com

Cecil, amateur radio is a national SERVICE!

Would you call the military "entertainment?"

Connect the dots.

Some dashes might be nice, too...

LA

wrote:
Cecil, amateur radio is a national SERVICE!

Yes, as in an "administrative division of government".

Would you call the military "entertainment?"

No, it is also an "administrative division of government".
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com

On Feb 2, 12:11�pm, Cecil Moore wrote:
wrote:
* *Cecil, amateur radio is a national SERVICE!

Yes, as in an "administrative division of government".

* *Would you call the military "entertainment?"

No, it is also an "administrative division of government".
--
73, Cecil *http://www.w5dxp.com

Hmmm...I just wrote four separate sentences. :-)

Are they related to one another? :-)

tongue in cheek

"Dee Flint" wrote:

Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still
must face the equivalent of market saturation. Not everyone is going to
be interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our
general population growth is very slow. These issues must be considered
when devising a strategy.

This is why I believe the way to "save" ham radio is "quality over
quantity".

You cannot "save" ham radio by throwing more bodies at it. You can only save
ham radio by making it such an essential service that the FCC dare not
eliminate it.


Look at how many people believed and still believe that Morse code kept
people out. They think there is a huge number of people just waiting in
the wings chomping at the bit to become hams without having to take a code
test. I'll certainly be happy and excited if that happens but let's say
it doesn't (and I think it won't).

You and I both. Did you post your prediction for the "pool" (as to where ARS
licensing numbers will be in another year? I said -1 to 0% change.

While I'm sure there are *some* people who will get licensed now there is no
code test, I do not think it will result in any meaningful numbers added to
the service. I suspect what you will see are a rash of upgrades as Techs
obtain HF privs. I wouldn't be surprised if, for the first time in many
years, we actually saw a *decrease* in the number of licensed Techs (which,
at the moment, is the only growing license class sans the Extra class)


What then will people propose?

Why... its those NASTY, pesky THEORY examinations that are holding people
away, naturally. After all, if all you want to do is talk to your buddy 2
streets over on the local repeater, why do you need to know stupid things
like radio wave propagation and antenna theory. All I do is call HRO, and my
antenna theory arrives pre-manufacturered in a box. Maybe rather than having
tests on RLC circuits we can have tests on the proper way to tighten hose
clamps.


We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute"
hams are, for the most part, gone. That's several years still of decline.
With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no
more recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in
this way.

I think you'll bottom out in the mid 300k's and stay there.... Or, the rate
of decline will fall off rapidly but still continue, slowly, as the ARS
peters out into non-existance by the mid 2020's.


The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of
recruits.

"Radio" simply isn't 'sexy' these days, with the internet, etc. Radio-based
"hobbies" are, for the most part, D-E-A-D.

We need another "Smokey and the Bandit" movie to glamourize CB/Ham radio
again.


Perhaps they will realize that it is a recruitment and marketing issue
rather than requirements.

Perhaps the ARRL should work with Yaesu, Kenwood, Cushcraft, etc. to arrange
for interested college clubs around the country to get free gear to set up a
station. Who knows.

73
kh6hz

"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Dee Flint" wrote:


[snip]


You and I both. Did you post your prediction for the "pool" (as to where
ARS licensing numbers will be in another year? I said -1 to 0% change.


Yes, since it is my pool!

While I'm sure there are *some* people who will get licensed now there is
no code test, I do not think it will result in any meaningful numbers
added to the service. I suspect what you will see are a rash of upgrades
as Techs obtain HF privs. I wouldn't be surprised if, for the first time
in many years, we actually saw a *decrease* in the number of licensed
Techs (which, at the moment, is the only growing license class sans the
Extra class)


What then will people propose?

Why... its those NASTY, pesky THEORY examinations that are holding people
away, naturally.


You do know that one definition of insanity is when you keep doing the same
thing (changing requirements) but expect different results!

Dee, N8UZE