One of the "reasons" for the decline in total US amateur
radio licensee totals by pro-coders was that "No-code-
test Technicians have reached the end of their grace
period and quit." That isn't the case and the numbers of
each class tell a different story.

Using only two publicly-accessible sources, www.hamdata.com
and the ARRL at www.arrl.org/fcc/stats.html, the following
tabulation was done for 9 February 2007. It should be noted
that James Miccolis, N2EY, seems to use the ARRL numbers
since they are an exact match. If so, then the ARRL class
totals exclude both Club callsigns and all those licensees
who are IN their two-year grace period.

Class Hamdata ARRL Difference
------------- ------- ------- ----------
Novice 29,048 22,725 6,323
Technician 309,939 291,312 18,627
Tech-Plus 39,827 30,243 9,584
General 144,484 132,863 11,621
Advanced 76,333 68,837 7,496
Extra 111,782 108,789 2,993
Club 10,380 --- ---
Total, All 721,793 --- ---
Tot.Less Club 711,413 654,769 56,664

It can be concluded that the 'Difference' column represents
all those licensees who are in their two-year grace period.
Tabulated again and calculated to the percentage of totals
of ALL in one license class:

Difference Percentage of
Class (Grace Period) Grace Period
----------- -------------- ------------
Novice 6,323 21.76
Technician 18,627 6.01
Tech-Plus 9,584 24.06
General 11,621 8.04
Advanced 7,496 9.82
Extra 2,993 2.68
All classes 56,664 7.96

The Extra class represents the long-time radio amateur, one
whose interest is very strong and more than likely to keep
their license as long as possible. General class is the
largest of the "code-tested" group (pre 23 Feb 07) but shows
a rough median position of the 10/12 year license period
(non-expired/full-term-plus-grace). Advanced class, not
being a new class since 2000, is expected to be higher in
percentage of the expired since they've had nearly 7 years
to renew as either General or to upgrade to Extra or just
let it lay until it is fully expired.

Novice class is the long-time loser since its numbers
have been declining well before the 2000 Restructuring.
Technician-Plus, a category change as a result of
creation of the no-code-test Technician in 1991 is a
surprising tops in percentage-of-grace-period. One
reason may be that all "higher" classes have had a long
history of community bigotry against them going back
before 1991; the "unequal-rights" variety of bigotry
that relegated them to the back of the amateur community
bus, of drinking-from-separate-fountains sort of thing.

Technician class, the overwhelmingly largest of all US
license classes, has the second-lowest grace period
percentage at only 6.01%. Had the pro-coder "predictions"
been correct, those would have been higher, approximately
9 or 10%. Obviously they aren't and the pro-coder
"predictions" were wrong. Technician class continues to
attract newcomers and its class total shrinks mainly by
Techs upgrading to "higher" classes after the 23 Feb 07
code test elimination date. There isn't the slightest
hint of any "exodus" of no-code-test Technician class
from US amateur radio licensing.

For those who doubt those numbers (and I'm sure there is
at least one), I have PDF copies of the referenced site
downloads that can be sent as attachments to private
e-mail.

74s, Len AF6AY