From: Leo on Oct 15, 9:36 am

On 14 Oct 2005 15:02:32 -0700, wrote:
Leo wrote:
On 14 Oct 2005 12:39:50 -0700, wrote:
From: on Oct 14, 9:20 am
Bill Sohl wrote:
wrote in message
wrote:


If the growth doesn't happen, it means the code test wasn't really a
problem in the first place.

Ahem...this is a "preconditioning" artificiality of "reasons."
[akin to the "do you still beat your wife?" question]

"Growth in numbers" is not a raison d'etre for the elimination
or retention of the code test. The lack of love and worship
of morsemanship should be enough.

Another view would be that it was a problem that is being fixed way
too late to repair the damage.

Amateur Radio was a very popular hobby back when you and I were kids -
today, there are too many other far-more-glamorous things competing
with it.

One of the first signs of that outside amateur radio was
the USA's creation of Class C and D CB in 1958. NO test of
any kind, just a Restricted Radiotelephone license form
needed for anyone to use the 22 channels (23rd shared with
radio control). Excellent in large urban areas before the
offshore products appeared about four years later and the
trucking industry started buying them. That era was before
the semiconductor devices were used en masse for consumer
electronics.

Those that haven't been in the electronics industry or hobby
field long can't appreciate the true revolution in parts,
components, ICs, etc., that virtually exploded in the overall
electronics market in the last half century. [I got an Allied
Radio catalog while off on the midwest trip...the 2006 issue
is 3/8" thicker than the 2005 issue for 2 1/2" thickness!]
Besides the personal computer hobbyist group (very large still)
there are the offshoots of PC work such as Robotics (almost
all micro-processor controlled) along with all kinds of
mechanical parts and specialty marketing for same, model
vehicle radio control (they lobbied for and got dozens of
channels in low VHF just for them)(examine the market for that
activity, from "park flyers" to R/C helicopters, very big).
Coming up are a plethora of "gadget" constructors and
experimenters doing many things from home security to infra-red
communications, instrumentation of all kinds (check out the
last decade of Scientific American's "home scientist" column).

Since 1958 we've all seen the appearance of communications
satellites making live international TV a reality, watched
the first men on the moon in live TV, seen the first of the
cellular telephones, cordless telephones become a part of our
social structure, CDs replacing vinyl disks for music, DVDs
that replaced VHS, "Pong" growing from a cocktail bar game
to rather sophisticated computer games (in their own
specialized enclosures), digital voice on handheld transceivers
for FRS (in the USA) unlicensed use, Bluetooth appliances for
cell phones, the Internet (only 14 years old) spreading
throughout most of the world and mail-order over the 'net
becoming a standard thing that built Amazon.com into a money-
maker of huge proportions. Besides the already-available
"text messaging" and imaging over cell phones, look for even
more startling developments in that now-ubiquitous pocket
sized appliance.

My wife got a new cell phone before we left on a 5000 mile
trip to Wisconsin and back. All along I-15, I-80, I-5 that
cell phone worked just fine inside the car, wife getting
her e-mail forwarded from AOL, then making several calls for
new reservations (we changed routes coming back) at motels,
getting voice mail from the cat sitter service, calling to
her sister and niece in WA state from Iowa. Emergency
comms through 911 service is now possible along highways,
even in the more remote parts of Wyoming, Utah, or Nevada.

I would think that the vast majority of the folks who are interested
in the things that Amateur Radio offers are already a part of the
hobby. Adding HF access might broaden the scope of those who did not
gain access to HF via morse testing (for whatever reasons) - but to
think for a moment that there are legions of wannabe hams who are
waiting exitedly for morse testing to be abolished so that they can
rush in and get on the air would be foolish.

They aren't there.

I think that is a valid observation. Had the "revolution" begun
earlier here, such as prior to the no-code-test Technician
class (USA) license of 1991, there might have been more growth.
In terms of CODED amateur radio licenses, those license numbers
would have SHRUNK by now without that no-code-test Tech class.
For over two years there has been a continual reduction in the
number USA amateur radio licenses. The majority of NEW licensees
come in via the no-code-test Tech class but they can't overcome
the EXPIRATIONS of already-granted licenses.

The morsemen acolytes of the Church of St. Hiram just can't
understand all of that. They bought into certain concepts in
their formative years and haven't been able to see that the
rest of the world changed around them.

It may not be too late to reverse but it will be a formidable
task to increase the ham license numbers, impossible using old
cliche'-ridden paradigms.