Jeffrey Herman wrote:
Frank Gilliland wrote:
One license. Existing licenses would be valid until expiration with no
renewals -- they would need to pass the single-license test if they
want to continue.

That's a good way to get the number of US hams down to about half what
it is now...

Let's crunch some numbers: Our total MF/HF spectrum consists of just
3.75 MHz, with only about half of it, 1875 kHz, useful for
communications at any one particular time of the day.

That depends what you mean by "useful for communications".

If you're talking about DX-with-limited-power-and-antennas, the figure
varies all
over the place with the time of day, year, solar cycle, etc. There are
times when
nothing over 5 MHz is very useful, and times when all the bands are
"wide open".

OTOH, if we include things like regional and local QSOs, bands that are
useless
for DX (80 meters at midday, 15 meters at midnight at the bottom of the
cycle)
are 'useful' a lot more of the time.

Note also that 1.7 MHz of that 3.75 MHz is the ten meter band.

If suddenly,
as if by magic, all licensees were granted MF/HF privileges, we could
possibly have 670,000 hams attempting to fill that 1.875 MHz.

More like 661,000, actually. As it stands now, about half that number
(in the USA) have lots of HF privileges (add up the current number
of Generals, Advanceds, and Extras - see the thread "ARS License
Numbers")

Okay,
I'll grant you that folks have to work and sleep, so let's say at any
one time, we have one-fourth of all 670 kilohams on the air, with two
per QSO.

Whoa! That means every ham is on HF six hours a day, every day! 42
hours on HF per week!

A more realistic figure, I would say, is something like one hour per
day
per ham. Sure, there will be some who are more active, but also some
who
are far less active.

That would mean each QSO would be separated by just 22 Hz.

Well, let's see....

One hour per day per ham, with two hams per QSO, and 660,000 hams,
means
13,750 QSOs simultaneously. That's 136 Hz per QSO.

I'll be more generous. Let's pretend that all 3.75 MHz is available
all the time, with say, one-tenth of all operators on at any one time;
now each two-person QSO is separated by 112 Hz. Getting better.

2.4 hours per day per ham on HF - every day? That's 16.8 hours per
week.

Worried that I didn't take into account frequency re-use? Alright,
suppose we could manage three simultaneous QSOs spread across the country
on a single frequency; each such grouping would now be separated by 336 Hz.

Using my numbers it works out to maybe 408 Hz

That could be done if we ban phone.

Ah, but many 'phone QSOs are round-tables with more than two hams per
QSO.
If an SSB round table uses 2400 Hz, but has six hams in it, the
Hz-per-ham is
only 400...

And modesd like PSK31 use less than 100 Hz....

I'll never understand this liberal mentality of wanting to grant
everyone MF/HF privileges; it's no longer a privilege if it's something
that everyone can get practically for free.

What "liberal mentality"?

Let's look at the record:

1983-1984: FCC testing is turned over to VECs, Q&A pools are published,
sending test is waived: Reagan Administration.

1987 Technician/General written is split in two: Reagan Administration

1990-1991: Medical waivers for code tests (as a favor to a foreign
King),
Technician loses its code test: Bush I administration

1998-2000: 3 license classes closed off to new issues; written exams
reduced,
code test reduced to 5 wpm: Clinton Administration

2003: S25.5 code test requirement eliminated from treaty: Bush II
administration

2005: FCC proposes complete elimination of code test: Bush II
administration.

Then there's BPL - who supported that idea?

We received our current
spectrum total at a time (WARC 1979) when we had less than half the
present number of hams.

Compare how many hams with General/Advanced/Extra licenses existed then
and now...

All three WARC bands added only 250 kHz to our HF allocations.

This movement of wanting to "fill up the bands
or we'll lose them" is nonsense.

The bigger question is: With over 300,000 US hams holding
General, Advanced or Extra licenses, (all of which have lots of
HF/MF privs), why aren't the bands busting at the seams 24/7??

Everyone who can meet the license requirements should get the
license. That's all there is to it.

As Michael Savage says, "Liberalism is a mental disorder."

Michael Savage? What's his call?

73 de Jim, N2EY