:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 January 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Very low activity was
observed on 04-05 January and 08-10 January while isolated low
activity occured on 06-07 January. A pair of C1 x-ray events were
observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10 Jan)
on 06/1137 UTC and 07/0617 UTC, respectively. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels on
04-05 January and 08-10 January. On 06 January, activity increased
to unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of minor
storming (G1-Minor) observed early on the 6th. Unsettled to active
conditions persisted through late on the 7th. This increase in
activity was due to the presence of a recurrent, positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind parameters,
measured at the ACE satellite, indicated an increase in wind speeds
early on 06 Jan from about 475 km/s to a peak of 643 km/s at 06/1025
UTC. Wind speeds remained elevated between 575 - 625 km/s through
about 07/2000 UTC when a gradual decline to about 430 km/s were
observed through the end of the summary period. Total field (Bt)
averaged about 5 nT for a majority of the period, but ranged from
7-16 nT from 05/0820 UTC - 06/0131 UTC. The Bz component varied
between +/- 4 nT with increased variability recorded between +12 nT
to -10 nT from 05/0935 UTC to 06/0022 UTC. The phi angle was in a
predominately positive (away for the Sun) orientation throughout the
summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 January - 06 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels from
11-14 January and from 29 January - 06 February. From 15-28 January,
activity levels are expected to increase to low to moderate levels
(R1-Minor) due to the return of old active Region 2473 (S21, L=334).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 11-12, 17-22, 26-28
January and 31 January - 02 February. High levels are expected on
13-16, 23-25, 29-30 January and 03-06 February due to enhanced winds
from a series of geoeffective CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
conditions on 12-13, 22-23, 28-29 January and 02-03 February with
isolated minor storm levels (G1-Minor) likely on 12 and 18 January,
all due to a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook
period.