:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 0222 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 February 2016

Solar activity was at low levels throughout the entire period.
Several regions produced low level C-class events, the largest a
C5/Sf at 04/1822 UTC from Region 2494 (S11, L=162, class/area
Dki/270 on 07 Feb). A filament eruption observed beginning on
05/1939 UTC near S19W28 was associated with a CME that is
anticipated to be a glancing blow midday on 09 Feb. Several other
small filament eruptions occurred but none were expected to be
geoeffective.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity began the week at quiet to unsettled
levels. Active to minor storm conditions were observed early on 03
Feb due to a co-rotating interactive region (CIR) followed by the
onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed during largely
nominal solar wind conditions from 04-07 Feb, with the exception of
an isolated active period on 07 Feb due to prolonged negative Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 February - 05 March 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the
forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels
possible from 12-16 Feb and 19-23 Feb following subsequent CH HSS
events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels with isolated minor storm periods on 08 Feb due to prolonged
negative Bz and negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to active
conditions are likely to continue into 09 Feb as effects continue
along with a possible glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected from 10-12 Feb as a recurrent
positive polarity HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected from 13-16 Feb. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected from 17-19 Feb with active periods possible
on 18 Feb due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity HSS.
Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 20-29 Feb. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods
possible on 01-03 Mar as another positive polarity CH HSS becomes
geoeffective. Quiet conditions are expected to close out the
forecast period.