:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Mar 07 0539 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 February - 06 March 2016

Solar activity reached low levels on 04 March due to a C1 flare from
Region 2506 (S06, L=223, class/area=Dai/130 on 29 Feb) at 0900 UTC.
Very low levels were observed for the remainder of the period. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet or quiet to unsettled levels
until 06 March, when a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. During the onset of the
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) total field (Bt) to a maximum
of 22 nT at 06/1646 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum
southward deflection of -18 nT at 06/1834 UTC. Solar wind speeds
increased to a peak of around 580 km/s at the end of the period. The
geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) during the 1500-1800 synoptic
period, G2 (Moderate) during the 1800-2100 synoptic period, and G3
(Strong) Geomagnetic Storm levels during the 2100-2400 UTC synoptic
period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 March - 02 April 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class flares, throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels from 07-10 March and 17-22 March due
to CH HSS effects. Moderate levels are expected from 11-16 March and
23 March - 02 April.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 07 March, 17-19 March, and 02 Apr in reponse to
effects from multiple coronal holes. Quiet to quiet to unsettled
conditions are anticipated for rest of the forecast period under
nominal solar wind conditions.