:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 May 02 0421 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 April - 01 May 2016

Solar activity was reached low levels this period. A total of seven
low-level C-class flares were observed through the week, four of
which were from Region 2535 (N05, L=124, class/area=Hax/60 on 24
Apr) and the remaining three were from Region 2539 (N16, L=084,
class/area=Eai/100 on 01 May). A pair of coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) associated with flare activity from Region 2535 were observed
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 28/0216 UTC and 28/0636 UTC, but
did not impact Earth as anticipated.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 25-30 Apr and was at normal levels on 01 May.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 25, 28-29 Apr, quiet to
unsettled on 26-27, 30 Apr, and quiet to active on 01 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 May - 28 May 2016

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight change for M-class
flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on 03-16 May due to
return of old Region 2529 (N09, L=342) which produced an isolated M6
flare (R2-Moderate Radio Blackout) last rotation. Very low to low
levels of solar activity are likely through the remainder of the
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
likely to reach high levels on 11-13 May with normal to moderate
levels expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 02 May due to an
enhanced solar wind environment and prolonged southward magnetic
field orientation. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 11
and 20 May with active levels likely on 10, 12, 14, 19 and 21 May
due to the influence of recurrent coronal hole high speed streams
(CH HSSs). Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected throughout
the remainder of the period.