:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 19 0130 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 - 18 September 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region
2585 (N08, L=222, class/area=Ekc/590 on 03 Sep) was the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the disk this week, however, the
region only produced low-level B-class flare activity before
rotating out of view early in the period. Region 2592 (N14, L=027,
class/area=Bxo/10 on 18 Sep) produced several low-level B-class
flares in the latter half of the week, but was relatively simple
throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 12-14 Sep, moderate levels on 18 Sep, and were at
normal levels on 15-17 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 13, 16-27 Sep and quiet to
unsettled on 12, 14-15, and 18 Sep under a mostly nominal solar wind
regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 September - 15 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change
for C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels
expected on 21-25, 29 Sep-01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind
enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole
high speed streams. Electron flux is expected to be at normal or
normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels on
19-20 Sep and 01 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Active conditions are
expected on 21 Sep and 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to
unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.