:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0113 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 - 26 February 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels on 20-21 and 25-26 Feb with
low levels observed on 22-24 Feb. Region 2638 (N19, L=111,
class/area Dso/150 on 22 Feb) produced three C-class flares, one
each on 22-24 Feb. The largest of these was a C4/1f flare observed
on 22/1327 UTC. Several weak CMEs were observed during the period,
but none of them had an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 20, 22-24 and 26 Feb. High levels were observed
on 21 and 25 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active
levels with an isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) interval early on 24
Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 20-21 and 25-26 Feb
under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to isolated G1 levels were
observed on 22-24 Feb under the influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of 671 km/s at 24/0516 UTC.
Total field (Bt) reached a peak of near 12 nT late on 23 Feb while
the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -10 nT, again
late on 23 Feb. Phi angle was in a predominately positive solar
sector throughout the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 February - 25 March 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for isolated C-class activity during the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 27 Feb, 01-13, 19-20 and 24-25 Mar.
Normal to moderate levels are expected on 28 Feb, 14-18 and 21-23
Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 01-02 and 16 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS
influence. Unsettled to active geomagnetic field activity is
expected on 28 Feb, 03-04, 15, 17-19 and 21-24 Mar due to CH HSS
influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period under a nominal solar wind regime.