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Old May 31st 21, 06:00 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info
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Default Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 24 - 30 May 2021

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 May 31 0313 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 - 30 May 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels on 24-25 and 30 May while an
increase to low levels occurred on 26-29 May. The majority of the
flare activity was from Regions 2824 (N20, L=196, class/area Dho/250
on 27 May) and 2826 (N24, L=215, class/area Dko/280 on 27 May). The
largest flare of the period was a C9/1f at 28/2313 UTC from Region
2824. Associated with this flare were Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps along with a CME observed off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 28/2312 UTC. WSA/ENLIL modelling of the CME
showed the bulk of the plasma directed off the Sun-Earth line,
however there was potential for a glancing blow late on 01 Jun to
early on 02 Jun.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) began at 29/0300 UTC,
reached a peak flux of 15 pfu at 29/0320 UTC and ended at 29/0540
UTC associated with the aforementioned C9 flare on 28 May.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 24-26 May and decreased to normal-moderate levels on
27-30 May. The largest flux of the period was 1,530 pfu observed at
25/1825 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. The period began with nominal solar wind
conditions and quiet levels through early on 26 May. At 26/1148 UTC,
an impulsive increase in solar wind speed from approximately 300-350
km/s was observed with a simultaneous increase in total field from
3-8 nT, marking the arrival of a possible conglomeration of CMEs
from 22-23 May. Total field continued to increase to 16 nT through
early on 27 May while solar wind speed increased to 400-450 km/s.
The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm
levels the second half on 26 May, followed by quiet to active levels
on 27 May. Solar wind speed continued between 380-490 km/s through
the end of the period. Quiet conditions were once again observed on
28 May followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 May - 26 June 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 31 May
- 11 Jun and again on 26 Jun. A slight chance for moderate
(R1-Minor) flares exist on 12-25 Jun with the return of Region 2824
to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 18-22 Jun due to coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active
levels on 01-04 Jun due to a combination of CH HSS effects as well
as the potential for a glancing blow from the 28 May CME late on 01
Jun to early on 02 jun. Unsettled to active levels are expected
again on 16-17 Jun, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 16 Jun
due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Unsettled levels are likely on 26
Jun due to a possible reoccurring solar sector boundary crossing
(SSBC).


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