The BBC has an overview of military risks in the area, but the article is a few
years old. The interesting reference is a 1995 War College simulation that
showed the US would lose a confontation with China over the Spratley Islands;
but with multiple Cartriers, the balance might shift in our favor.

See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...fic/279170.stm

BEIJING, (Reuters) - When China holds war games on Dongshan island off its
southeastern coast this month, its SU-27 fighters will battle for air
superiority and back up an amphibious landing in a mock invasion of Taiwan.

Convinced that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian will push for statehood during
his second four-year term, China is readying for a showdown with the island
which Beijing has claimed as its own since the end of the Chinese civil war in
1949.

Booming China wants to avoid conflict, analysts say. The ball is in Taiwan's
court -- whether conflict breaks out hinges on how far Chen pushes the
envelope.

"They do not wish to use force...This is not their preferred course of action.
But they are preparing for worst-case scenarios," said David Shambaugh, an
expert on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at George Washington University.

"I've been coming to China every year for the last 25 years, I have never
sensed a higher level of anxiety over the Taiwan issue than at the present
time."

Chen's predecessor, Lee Teng-hui, has played down the threats and likened China
to a "barking dog that won't bite".

Taiwan has apparently been emboldened by U.S. President George W. Bush's pledge
to do whatever it takes to help the self-ruling democratic island defend
itself, but analysts said it may be miscalculating Beijing's resolve.

"The danger of war truly exists," said Wang Jisi, director of the Institute of
International Strategy at the Central Party School, which trains Communist
apparatchiks.

PAPER TIGER?

"We're not a paper tiger. We're a real tiger," he said, adding that China needs
to "strengthen the credibility" of its longstanding threat to attack if Taiwan
declares statehood.

Lee dismissed Chinese threats after war games following his landmark U.S. visit
in 1995 mellowed into little more than a war of words when he, and later Chen,
pushed for independence.

Taiwan's leaders are betting that China will not risk breakneck growth, which
is needed to create enough jobs, avert social unrest and perpetuate Communist
Party rule.

Military conflict would certainly invite a boycott of the 2008 Beijing Olympics
and diplomatic isolation worse than in the years after the 1989 Tiananmen
Square protests were crushed.

Instability would drive away foreign investors and Taiwanese who have poured
$100 billion into China since the late 1980s. It would also rattle the global
chip industry and financial markets.

Taiwan, armed to the teeth with U.S. and French jet fighters and warships, is
counting on U.S. help in the event of conflict. Washington switched diplomatic
recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but remains Taiwan's biggest arms
supplier and ally.

"The chances of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2012 are very low"
because the PLA is incapable of taking on the United States, said Chong-Pin
Lin, a former Taiwan deputy defence minister. He did not rule out more sabre
rattling.

But Kenneth Lieberthal, a Sinologist at the University of Michigan, said Taiwan
is wrong when it assumes Beijing is "all bluff when it talks about the use of
force".

"The second assumption is: if the first assumption is wrong, then Chen
nevertheless has a military blank cheque from the United States...I believe
both assumptions are wrong," he said.

Washington has no desire to be dragged into a conflict with China over Taiwan.
But the three are faced with a potentially vicious circle: Taiwan flirts with
independence, leading to Chinese invasion threats which force the United States
to back the island which in turn further emboldens Taipei.

Chen appears determined to adopt a new constitution in 2008, a move seen by
Beijing as a formal declaration of independence.

China on the other hand has painted itself into a corner by beating the drums
of war. No Chinese leader can afford to be seen as weak by giving in on the
mission of reunification.

Beijing does not trust Chen, but he believes it will eventually deal with him.
"The chances of dialogue resuming will be high after the year-end parliamentary
elections and the U.S. elections," a senior Taiwan government source told
Reuters. (Additional reporting by John Ruwitch and Juliana Liu)

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK255359.htm

"Radioman390" wrote in message
...
The Navy has 7 (out of 12) carrier groups (Carrier plus sub, plus escort
and
support ships) all out at sea at the same time as part of a summer
exercise.

I hope that North Korea takes advantage of
the timing of this exercize to light off a few
missiles over Japan and into the Western
Pacific or even better, they conduct an
above groud nuclear test and in either case
by their so doing tell George W Bush to
go suck cock.

"Levaiathan IV" wrote in message sgroups.com...
"Radioman390" wrote in message
...
The Navy has 7 (out of 12) carrier groups (Carrier plus sub, plus escort
and
support ships) all out at sea at the same time as part of a summer
exercise.

I hope that North Korea takes advantage of
the timing of this exercize to light off a few
missiles over Japan and into the Western
Pacific or even better, they conduct an
above groud nuclear test and in either case
by their so doing tell George W Bush to
go suck cock.

Another high IQ type. Every statement you made sounds like you had a
brain fart. From your last sentance I would say you must lean toward
the homosexual side. Brother George Bush is a real man and knows the
chinese won't do much.