PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN SEP 5 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.5N 77.2W 50 X X X 50 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4
26.4N 78.5W 25 7 X 1 33 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2
27.0N 79.7W 3 19 1 2 25 KEY WEST FL X 3 2 3 8
MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL X 7 5 4 16
MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 FT MYERS FL X 6 7 4 17
MYEG 235N 758W 60 X X X 60 VENICE FL X 3 8 6 17
MYAK 241N 776W 32 X X X 32 TAMPA FL X 1 10 6 17
MYNN 251N 775W 45 X X X 45 CEDAR KEY FL X X 6 10 16
MYGF 266N 787W 18 12 X 1 31 ST MARKS FL X X 1 12 13
MARATHON FL X 6 2 3 11 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 11 12
MIAMI FL 3 13 2 1 19 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL 2 17 2 2 23 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6
FT PIERCE FL X 16 4 2 22 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
COCOA BEACH FL X 9 8 4 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 10 6 18 BURAS LA X X X 2 2
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 3 12 15 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 11 12
SAVANNAH GA X X X 10 10 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7
CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT