NW7US Propagation Alert

January 15, 2005

During the series of flares from solar sunspot region 0720, at 0614 UTC 15
January 2005, a strong solar flare and radio sweep event was observed. This
indicates a full-halo coronal mass ejection (one that is headed directly
toward Earth). The start time of this Type II burst was 0554 UTC 15 January
2005. The shock speed is estimated at 1300 km/s - this is a MAJOR SHOCK. An
extremely strong Type IV event followed the Type II event. The sweep looks
optically correlated with the flare from region 0720. (To see the sweep,
browse to

It is now expected that the start of January 16 will see strong geomagnetic
storminess, increasing to MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC storminess, then declining late
on January 17 to active levels. This could well be a major Aurora event, as
well. *STRONGLY DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED* from 16
January through 17 January 2005.

Additional details will be reported when available.

http://prop.hfradio.org/ips_type2event-20050115.gif (IPS))