"Peter Maus" wrote in message
...
Eric F. Richards wrote:
Peter Maus wrote:





Sometimes the serious participants simply go into lurking mode.
I've been with the group for about a decade, now, but have fallen
into lurking mode, because much of what comes up is the same stuff
that came up when I first joined the group. Lots of beginners'
questions, and a good deal of rehash of common problems.

Most of the gratuitous flamers have exited after becoming
bored.
Those that remain become more topical, less bellicose.

So, it's not that the serious players have left, they're just
waiting to participate in a discussion that they've not already
been
involved in.



Good to see you posting, Peter.


Thanks.


Here's an on-topic sort of thing to ask you: Do you expec the
disappearance of most -- if not all -- tabletops from the SW
market to
be permanent?



Unless there is a demand, yes.

With SW broadcasters cutting back, manufacturers are looking at
the worldwide demand for receivers falling steadily. Let's face it,
most of us here, as enthusiastic as we are, don't need hardware that
tops a kilobuck for our hobbycraft. You buy heavy. I buy heavy.
Steve Lare buys heavy. But read the posts of users here...they're
not dropping cash topping a kilobuck on a receiver. And many were
drawn into the hobby to listen to the BBC, when signals were
plentiful and reception quality was near local. As BBC and DW have
exited the North American market, the dilletantes, of which there
are many, lost interest. As broadcaster after broadcaster exits the
market, more program listeners exit with them. Some move to
satellite radio. Most simply exit the hobby.

Lost interest, means an upgraded receiver not sold.

Now, the hardcores here, will be scoring utes and transatlantic
aircraft, smaller broadcasters and harder to capture signals from
overseas, but that's not easy. And the majority of SW participants
aren't going to spend that kind of time and effort to pick up noisy,
fading signals. You will. I will. Lare will. Maghakian will. And
we'll all use heavy hardware to do it.

Another problem is the issue of priorities. With the
exception of the SX-100 that I scored at Dayton,
I've not bought a radio for the shack since the Satellit
800 back in 2000. I'd love to grab an R-5000, IC-R71A,
R8, R8A or R8B, but the money needs to go elsewhere
right now. My other hobbies suffer accordingly, but
unless I want to end up owing an arm and a leg to
the credit agencies, I have to cut back and
reprioritize.

But that's four that I can think of in a swipe of the cortex.
There was a time I could point to four times that many without
taking a breath. Times have changed. In the 10 years I've been
playing in this newsgroup alone. I barely recognize the bands from
the time I first got into SW 50 years ago.


And most don't know that they can, despite what the HOA says, put
up an external antenna. They don't want a confrontation, even if
they're right, and they don't want a bullseye painted on their back
with the community. Intimidation keeps a LOT of people, who would
otherwise play harder with SW, from doing so.

Heh. I just found out last week that the neighbors
thought I was putting up a clothesline last fall when
I put up my 50' random wire. I figured that the
height of it (10+' off the ground) would have been
a hint that it wasn't a clothesline, but then again...

So, there's diminishing activity and diminishing interest.
There's also a LOT more noise. It's gotten so difficult to score a
clean signal where I am, I can barely hear WLS sometimes. And my
installation is no slouch job.

Yes, I've noticed as summer came on, when people
started switching on the pool equipment, the
lights, and other outdoor items that the noise level
skyrocketed. I'm starting to think that a loop like
a Wellbrook isn't a bad idea after all, especially when
next year we'll be planting a swamp white oak
in the path of the random wire, and the random
wire will have to come down.

Who but the hardcores are going to put up with that? And spend
heavy cash to do it? Few. To be sure.

So, sales of serious receivers are down. Toys and gimmicks are
up. SW is seen as a gimmick, almost afterthought, to receiver
manufacture. It goes into portables more designed for the beach than
the shack. Along with more digital crap, that unless executed well,
produces more noise than the signals being sought.

And always bear in mind, that in the US, shortwave has never been
a part of daily life as it was in Europe. It's virtually always been
a matter of hobbycraft here. And it's even seen dramatic diminution
in Europe, where it was among the most important sources of
broadcast content. When, Mark "Don't-Try-To-Confuse-Me-With-Facts
Byford" decided to shut off North American streams, and let he and
his school tie wearing buddies pocket the budget savings, he was
totally misinformed about the size of the WorldService listening
audience in the US. He believed that the numbers favored FM and
internet. He was staggeringly full of ****. But then, he wasn't
really interested in reaching the SW listening crowd, because we
didn't fit the socio-economic targets he found desirable. He's not
alone in that assessment of SW listeners. Broadcasters worldwide, as
well as hardware manufactures all look at the numbers. And most
decide we're not a market worth serving.

US is among the biggest and most voracious markets in the world
(China is now giving us a run for our money) and if there's limited
market need, here, most manufacturers are not interested in
producing a product to fill it.

The problem here is that it's essentially understood
that it requires a certain financial commitment to
undertake a manufacturing job. I think that the
SW business can be done, but not on anything
approaching the scale of what was done before.
More like Wellbrook sized operations, I believe.

Manufacturers are in the business of providing commodities these
days. The days of the passionate manufacturer serving the hobby by
producing specialized toys are all but over. Hallicrafters couldn'
survive today, even with their products made in Japan and China.
Hammarlund couldn't survive today. There's a reason why Drake isn't
making SW desktops, either. MBA driven boardrooms are no longer
interested in producing products for boutique buyers. Ten Tec still
makes receivers, but the bulk of their money comes from government
contracts and their sheetmetal fabricating business. There's a
budget to serve the hobby. But it's limited. And products are
pricey. Good products, no doubt, but very pricey.

I think that there is a business for SW, but it will have
to be served by small companies. Small as in itty-bitty.
The audiophile companies haven't been put out of
business by the changing times with everyone and
their grandmother wanting home theaters, and the
catering of the few boutique makers to the obsessed
has continued.

Even Icom is out of the SW business. They produced huge goverment
and commercial contractors. Hobbycraft had limited access to these
products, but even commercial contractors are getting out of HF, and
amateur numbers, where the last passion for HF exists, are
dwindling. Even dedicated amateur suppliers are turning attention
away from HF.

No manufacturer is going to enter the market with a product
that's saleproof. And for most manufacturers today, it's not about a
product, a service, or serving a niche, it's about numbers. And they

have to be large numbers to make it worth the effort to being
servicing needs.

So, yes, I expect the absence of affordable performance desktops
to be permanent.

I will wait and see; things might change once boomers
retire and have a lot of money and time on their
hands.

--Mike L.