The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Jan 20, 2006--As we cruise into the low part of
Solar Cycle 23, the sun has been very quiet, save for some coronal
holes providing solar wind streams. This week average daily
sunspot numbers were up nearly 10 points compared to last. The
geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet, although a little more
active than the previous week.

Over the next week expect solar flux to stay around 90, with
geomagnetic conditions quiet, except for some unsettled to active
conditions around January 23-24. Geophysical Institute Prague
expects quiet conditions January 21, quiet to unsettled January 20
and 22, unsettled January 25 and 26, unsettled to active January
23, and active conditions (higher A and K index) on January 24.

Rich DiDonna, NN3W, of Virginia writes: "While conditions on the
high bands may stink, conditions on the low bands have been spectacular. 40
meters is opening
to Europe as early as 2100 UTC from the East Coast with reliable openings to the
Middle East,
and long path to Southeast Asia. 80 and 160 have also been amazing. So, while
Old Sol may be
in 'nap' phase, one should not assume that there is a lack of DX to work!"

Jon Jones, N0JK, of Kansas echoes Rich's comments about the lower frequencies:
"160 meter
propagation to Europe from the Midwest and western USA is picking up. For a
low-band
propagation beacon I listen to the 1.2 megawatt AM station from Kvitsøy, Norway,
on 1314 kHz.
Its signal has been very strong the last couple of evenings. Great 160 meter
conditions were
noted by W8CAR and others the same time to Europe."

Jon also noted an extensive 6 meter E layer opening on January 13-14 in which
W1, W2, W3
and W4 stations were coming in.

Charles Lewis, S9SS, of Sao Tome e Principe--an African island in the Atlantic
Ocean about
150 miles west of Libreville, Gabon--was one of the stations reported in a
recent bulletin by
K7HP in Arizona as worked on 10 meters. Charles writes: "The reason Hank worked
me that
night is that I also use propagation beacons. On 10 meters, I primarily depend
on the W3VD
beacon in Laurel, Maryland. That evening, as I often do, I had the receiver
tuned to the W3VD
beacon while I worked at the computer across the room. About 2110 UTC I heard
the beacon
rise dramatically out of the noise. I checked and found the band was becoming
live with 10
meters stations. I fired up my amp and called CQ. In a period of about 40
minutes I worked about
40 stations. I would have worked many more, but it took a while of rag chewing
before I was
discovered by the crowd.

"These late 10 meters openings are not very unusual for me in the 2015 to 2130
UTC time
frame. They more often start around 2030 to 2040 UTC. They might last a few
minutes or they
might last a couple of hours. Until early last year, they were nearly nightly.
Now they are a lot
more scarce. There have been many times that I heard W3VD with a good signal and
could
raise no one or perhaps had a long rag chew with someone followed by no takers
afterward.

"I also had a very good opening on 12/11, the second day of the ARRL 10 Meters
Contest that
began about 2010 UTC. I worked about 115 contacts coast to coast in NA over a
period of
about 50 minutes until it died. In that case also, I was working at the computer
and heard W3VD
pop out of the noise. The band usually dies about as suddenly as it comes to
life.

"I am only about 20 miles north of the Equator. There is only about a 20 minute
variation in
sunset time over the year. The sun is usually down well before 1800 UTC, so
these openings
are long after my sunset."

Charles says that on 20 through 12 meters he uses the IARU beacon system, and on
12 meters
he often hears 4U1UN in New York City coming in strong, while no one else seems
to be on the
band. He says 20 meters is his best band for working the US and is the best way
to
communicate with friends near his vacation home in western North Carolina.

Charles has an interesting challenge operating from his QTH from a huge Voice of
America
transmitter site that seems to hover over his station.

A couple of weeks ago Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, had some comments about SSNe, or

Effective Sunspot Numbers, and the T-Index. He continues:

"In the January 6 'Solar Update,' I said the T Index and SSNe were similar
methods that give a
better picture of what the ionosphere is doing now. Both represent an effective
sunspot number
based on real-time sounding of the F2 region critical frequency. Let's look at
the basic difference
between SSNe and the T Index.

"SSNe is calculated from a worldwide set of ionosondes at geomagnetic latitudes
lower than 50
degrees. The SSNe plot also shows the RMS percent difference between the foF2
values used
to derive SSNe and foF2 calculated from the model using that SSNe as input. This
parameter
typically runs about 20 percent or so. If it exceeds 30 percent this indicates
that the global
ionosphere is departing more from the model expectation than usual. And if it
exceeds 50
percent buyer beware!

"The T Index is calculated from 14 ionosondes in the Australian sector. The
regional maps
(Australasia, Europe, and North America) show the difference between the
predicted monthly T
Index and the current observed hourly conditions in the desired region.

"Which one is best to use? That's a tough call, but I'd personally give the edge
to SSNe for
global predictions as it is based on worldwide data. Neither gives us a daily
model of the
ionosphere. But both do allow you to assess whether the current conditions are
generally equal
to, better than, or worse than the median value from your propagation prediction
program when
using the heavily averaged smoothed sunspot number (or smoothed solar flux).

"Thanks to Jim Secan of Northwest Research Associates in Tucson for information
on SSNe
and for forwarding the T Index information from Garth Patterson at IPS."

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for January 12 through 18 were 12, 0, 0, 32, 42, 36 and 50, with
a mean of
24.6. The 10.7 cm flux was 76.5, 76.5, 77.4, 80.9, 83.8, 82.5, and 85.6, with a
mean of 80.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 3, 4, 14, 8 and 5, with a mean of 5.6.
Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 2, 4, 2, 4, 8, 10 and 9, with a mean of 5.6.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA