The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Jan 27, 2006--The average daily sunspot number
this week rose nearly 25 points to 49.4, about double last week's
count of 24.6. Average daily solar flux rose by nearly 11 points to
91.4.

This week Double Sunspot 848 continued to expand as it transited
the earth-facing side of our nearest star. But as of today, Friday
January 27, it is moving out of the sun's visible area. At mid-week
the interplanetary magnetic field moved south, and a moderate
solar wind drove the planetary A index to 29 on January 26.

By this time next year solar activity will probably be even lower
than it is now, with no visible sunspots for many days in
succession. To get an idea of what this will be like, take a look at
our propagation bulletins from almost 10 years, in September 1996.
Archives are on this Web site (click on propagation bulletins for
1996). In the bulletins between 39 and 43 you'll see weeks of zero
sunspot reports. These periods of low activity are not good news
for those who enjoy the higher HF bands, but they can be great for
80 and 160 meters.

Bill Gallier, W4WX, writes that he and K4QD plan to travel to Ascension (ZD8)
February 21-28.
He wanted a propagation prediction for 160 meters for those days to various
continents. Here's
the rub: The popular propagation prediction software is written around an
algorithm that only
works down to 3 MHz and not that reliably on the lower frequencies above 3 MHz.
About the
best we could do was to recommend trying paths to various locations when it's
dark at both
ends of the path. A propagation program like W6ELprop will work for this,
because the
prediction lists of sunrise and sunset times at both locations. By the way,
W6ELprop is free!

John Winans, WA2LGE, asks about lists of beacons. A Google search turned up a
list that was
new to me, on the AC6V Web site. It's a nice set of links to beacon software as
well as lists of
beacons from VLF to VHF.

For this week look for a planetary A index of around 12 for today, January 27,
and then 5 (very
quiet) on every day through February 2. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts
unsettled activity
for January 27, quiet to unsettled for January 28 and February 1 and 2, and
quiet conditions for
January 29 to 31. Sunspot activity will remain low, and the 10.7 cm solar flux
is predicted around
85 for January 27-28 and 80 from January 29 through February 2.

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for January 19 through 25 were 48, 33, 28, 60, 73, 62 and 42,
with a mean of
49.4. The 10.7 cm flux was 88.6, 90.7, 93.8, 92.8, 92.4, 92.6, and 89, with a
mean of 91.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 4, 6, 15, 7 and 7, with a mean of 7.4.
Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 13, 6 and 8, with a mean of 6.3.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA