The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Mar 3, 2006--Low activity continues with another
string of zero-sunspot days. Average daily sunspot numbers for this
week were down by 4 points from the prior week to 3.1. Average
solar flux declined by 1 point to 76.4.

February has ended, so a comparison of monthly averages of daily
sunspot numbers and solar flux is in order. The average sunspot
numbers plummeted in February--far below any other month in the
second half of Cycle 23.

The average daily sunspot numbers for the months January 2005
through February 2006 were 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5, 65.4, 59.8, 68.7,
65.6, 39.2, 13, 32.2, 62.6, 26.7 and 5.3. Average daily solar flux for
the same months was 102.3, 97.2, 89.9, 85.9, 99.5, 93.7, 96.5,
92.4, 91.9, 76.6, 86.3, 90.8, 83.4 and 76.5.

This weekend is the ARRL International DX Contest (SSB).
Although solar activity is low, geomagnetic conditions should
remain quiet, which is good. Sunday, March 5, could see some
unsettled activity. The predicted planetary A index for March 3-7 is
8, 5, 12, 5 and 5. Sunspot and solar flux levels should stay about
the same, which is very low.

Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on March 3,
4, 6, 7 and 8. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for March 5
and 9.

ARRL member Jake Groenhof, N0LX, of Golden, Colorado, sent an
interesting and amusing e-mail titled "Solar Minimum Hoax." He
mentioned all the fun he's been having as we slide toward the end
of Cycle 23, working hams around the world from his backpack pedestrian mobile
QRP rig. He
writes:

"This will be my first solar minimum as an active ham. To top it off, I've
operated almost 100%
QRP (sideband) for the past four years, and I'm beginning to think this solar
minimum stuff is all
a hoax. How else could you explain this past weekend?

"I was up on a hilltop near the home QTH in Colorado running five watts from a
backpack-mounted radio on 17 meters. My second contact was Hawaii. Then, a few
QSOs later
I was talking to Yuu, JH1OCC, in Japan. A half-hour later I received a 57 signal
report from Hiro,
JE7JIS.

"The East Coast was well represented from New York to Florida, and a MD station
recorded
one of my transmissions and sent it to me in an e-mail. The recording is on my
Web site.

"The weird thing was the complete lack of W6 calls. Not a single California
station to be heard in
four hours. Maybe it's not a hoax. It's a conspiracy!"

Jake uses some impressive antennas for his backpack rig, and I'll bet he is
careful about
walking near power lines. In fact, all of his photos show him standing out in
the wide open
spaces of Colorado. Check it out! Not to be missed is the photo of Jake standing
in a snowstorm
using an antenna suspended from a balloon! Very impressive. Thanks, Jake, for
sharing the
audio recording and these extraordinary photos with us!

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 11 and 0,
with a mean of
3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 75.1, 76, 76, 76.5, 77, 77.1, and 77, with a mean of 76.4.
Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 6, 1, 5, 3, 5 and 7, with a mean of 4.3. Estimated
mid-latitude A
indices were 4, 4, 1, 3, 2, 2 and 5, with a mean of 3.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA