The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, May 12, 2006--This week saw higher geomagnetic
activity and lower sunspot numbers than the previous period (our
reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday). Average daily
sunspot numbers declined more than 5 points to 54.3. Today, May
12, look for active geomagnetic conditions with a planetary A index
predicted at 25, then declining to 12 and 10 on Saturday and
Sunday. Sunspot numbers and solar flux should be a bit lower than
the past week.

Geophysical Institute Prague predicts active geomagnetic
conditions for today, May 12, unsettled May 13, quiet to unsettled
May 14, nice and quiet May 15-16, back to quiet to unsettled for
May 17, and unsettled conditions on May 18.

Many readers alerted us to a new long-range sunspot cycle
prediction. This time it wasn't for upcoming Cycle 24, but the peak
of Cycle 25, which should reach solar maximum around 2022.

Think that's a long way off? It depends on your perspective,
determined by the proportion a given time period represents in
comparison with how long you've been around. For instance, when
starting out at age 12 as WN7CSK in early 1965, looking ahead 16
years I would be 28, and the year 1981--hard to fathom at the time.
The old-timers I knew then, such as Howard S. Pyle, W7OE, first
on the air around the same age in 1907, would have laughed out loud at such an
assessment.

This spring marked 16 years since I began compiling this weekly bulletin. And 16
years from
now, in mid 2022, I will turn 70, a terrifying notion, because the last 16 years
went by so fast. I
suspect the next 16 years to flash by shortly. Even those of us who got into ham
radio at a
young age can't expect to see very many solar cycles. Let's hope the
soon-to-begin Cycle 24 is
huge, reminiscent of the awesome Cycle 19 of the 1950s.

We saw a prediction in March that the upcoming Cycle 24 could be a big one.
Using the same
method of indirectly observing a massive circulating current of solar plasma, a
report from NASA
solar physicist David Hathaway shows a stunted-looking Cycle 25. Read about it
in an article by
NASA's Tony Phillips.

Roger Barnhill, AB8RX, of Lansing, Michigan asks: "Where can I find up-to-date
info on which
way Earth's magnetic field is pointing at any particular time?"

You can find this on the SpaceWeather.com site. Look down the left side under
"Interplanetary
Magnetic Field." When Earth's magnetic field is pointing south, Earth is
vulnerable to solar wind
and more likely to experience greater geomagnetic activity.

HS0ZFQ tipped us off to a Web page, "The short history of the Smoothed Sunspot
Number." It
discusses the various sources for smoothed sunspot numbers needed for
propagation
prediction programs using the VOACAP ("Voice of America Coverage Analysis
Program")
engine. One example called HamCAP is from VE3NEA, and it's free!

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, in Florida, enjoys observing sporadic-E propagation on
broadcast
television. On May 11 at 1750 UTC and again at 2215-2230 UTC he observed Canal 2
on TV
channel 2 coming from Nicaragua about 1100 miles away!

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10 were 50, 61, 69, 64, 53, 56 and 27, with a
mean of 54.3.
10.7 cm flux was 91.8, 86.7, 87, 86.2, 84.7, 82.6, and 78.2, with a mean of
85.3. Estimated
planetary A indices were 14, 13, 24, 19, 8, 4 and 4, with a mean of 12.3.
Estimated mid-latitude
A indices were 10, 8, 14, 17, 5, 2 and 4, with a mean of 8.6.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA